Heat (+9.5) @ Lakers (216.5)
Pick: Lakers Team Total Over 113
If Game 1 was any indication, we’re in for a pretty boring NBA Finals. The Lakers ran right through the Heat on Wednesday night, dominating from start to finish on their way to a 116-98 win that was not as close as the score indicated. In addition to getting blown out Miami lost a key veteran in its backcourt and budding young star in its frontcourt as guard Goran Dragic and center Bam Adebayo are both listed as doubtful for tonight’s Game 2.
It’s the Adebayo injury that we want to exploit in tonight’s handicap. Despite a no-sweat victory on Wednesday night, the Lakers did lose the points in the paint battle 46-38. Los Angeles has had fewer points in the paint in just two other games in the postseason. Adebayo is a menace for Miami around the rim defensively and so with him likely out, I would expect Lakers coach Frank Vogel to scheme up more opportunities for some high-percentage shots inside. While the 38 points in the paint did seem low for the Lakers, they shot 27 free throws in Game 1 which is another number we would expect to be high. Then toss in the Lakers shooting a strong 15-38 from the three-point line in Game 1 and we would expect their outside shooters to be able to get more open looks with the Lakers being more effective inside as well. All of it adds up to a big night for Los Angeles offensively and we’d prefer to play its team total over in Game 2 as opposed to laying the big number.