We’re back with another UFC Fight Night. With a week, we have Hernandez and Pereira as the main event. Even though Pereira is coming into this fight as the underdog, he’s far from a weak opponent. He will test Hernadez at every turn. With the rest of the card full of veteran talent and some fresh faces, this will be one to watch! Tune in this Saturday, Oct 19, at 7:00 PM ET to catch the start of the main card!
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The underdog for just the second time in his UFC career, Michel Pereira's first underdog appearance saw him knock out Muslim Salikhov. Flashy and dangerous on the feet, Pereira has finished over 60% of his fights while being heavily favored in most of his UFC bouts, including a recent submission win against Ihor Potieria. Pereira's 94% takedown defense is misleading, as very few opponents have tried to take him down.
Anthony Hernandez has grown accustomed to being a favorite, as evidenced by his current five-fight win streak. Hernandez is among the finest pure submission artists in the world - with over 80% of his fights finished via submission, most notably in a massive upset against BJJ world champion Rodolfo Vieira. A skilled grappler, Hernandez currently leads his division in takedowns landed per 15 minutes at 6.62 and in submission attempts per 15 minutes at 3.02.
Pereira will have a decided advantage standing, where he can unleash crushing strikes. Still, once it hits the mat, Hernandez is expected to have his way, overwhelming with his grappling and submissions. While Pereira has some good submission defense, Hernandez's takedown accuracy and pressure make him the favorite. For Hernandez to win by submission or ground-and-pound may be what the oddsmakers believe will happen on fight night.
Currently ranked 12th at bantamweight, a win over Rob Font would push Phillips into the Top 10. However, Font has struggled in recent years, as he's lost four out of his last five fights, though all against elite competition, with those losses coming to Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen, Marlon Vera, and Jose Aldo via decision. His lone win in that span was an impressive TKO over Adrian Yanez.
Statistically, Phillips and Font stack up close in striking: 5.72 significant strikes landed per minute to 45% accuracy while absorbing 3.38 strikes; for Font, those numbers are 5.53, 45%, and 3.65, respectively. Defensively, Phillips has a slightly better 61% striking defense than Font's 56%. For all of the similar numbers on paper, Phillips is a more diverse MMA-based striker with heavy leg kicks; Font is a traditional boxer who hardly ever throws a leg kick.
Phillips is the favorite in this bout because of how diverse Phillips is as a striker and the threat of wrestling he presents against a struggling Font. From a betting perspective, it may be Phillips who wins by decision, as both fighters often go the distance in their fights. Choices include the fight to go the distance at -185, Phillips to win by decision at -135, and over 2.5 rounds at -230. His best value prop may be Phillips winning by a unanimous decision of -105.
Sumudaerji enters on a two-fight losing streak, having last been submitted by Tim Elliott in December and previously in a dramatic finish by Matt Schnell. Sumudaerji's UFC career has been up and down; wins over Andre Soukhamthath, Malcolm Gordon, and Zarrukh Adashev are countered by three losses inside the Octagon all via submission.
Meanwhile, Charles Johnson comes in with a three-fight win streak. He scored a knockout against Joshua Van and won the decision over Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum. The losses for Johnson have usually come when he's unable to keep the fight standing. Still, with Sumudaerji only attempting 0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, this fight should stay standing - where Johnson prefers to work.
Statistically, Sumudaerji is barely outlanding his opponents in striking, particularly in the category of strikes absorbed per minute, 2.73 to 3.45 for Johnson. The latter has been much improved in his striking lately, ending up on top in total strikes in his last couple of bouts. Meanwhile, Sumudaerji was out-struck in his decision win over Adashev.
Considering Johnson's recent form and Sumudaerji's tendency to fight extremely wild, it's possible Johnson is ahead in the striking department since he is the busier. A finish could also likely be provided Sumudaerji gives openings.
Jake Hadley was initially scheduled to face Brady Hiestand in what many thought could be a win for Hiestand. However, on short notice, Smotherman came in to replace Hiestand.
Hadley recently moved up to bantamweight after losing to Cody Durden and Charles Johnson in consecutive bouts. He scored a unanimous decision win against Caolan Loughran in July, although he was a pound overweight.
Smotherman was stopped by Contender Series foe Charalampos Grigoriou last year but has since rebounded with three wins under the Fury FC banner.
It’s hard to call this fight with so little consistency between these fighters. In terms of betting, this might be a stay-away.
Elkins is entering his 29th UFC fight, while Pineda has had 12 bouts in the promotion, debuting back in 2012. Elkins, 40, is coming off a submission win over TJ Brown over a year ago. Pineda, 39, lost to Nathaniel Wood in July after a "Fight of the Night" loss to Alex Caceres.
Pineda is known for his grappling but may struggle to submit Elkins, who has only been submitted once in his long career. Elkins thrives on pressure fighting, and although it's harder for him to maintain that pace at 40, he could still outwork Pineda, who has six submission losses on his record. Elkins has shown recent success with rear-naked choke wins, making him a threat on the ground as well.