Fight fans! What an exciting card we have for UFC 301 in Brazil! Some have mentioned this is a lackluster PPV, and I couldn’t disagree more!
There are definitely some heavy favorites, some live dogs, and a handful of matches I cannot wait to see! Let's get into it!
Kevin Borjas (9-2, 0-1 UFC) takes on Alessandro Costa (13-4, 1-2 UFC) in Costas home turf. Borjas is a very talented striker, even levels above Costa. Borjas will move forward, strike, and throw kicks to both keep distance and keep Costa guessing.
Yes, Costa is dangerous. He is the favorite, will have the crowd behind him, and if he gets it to the ground, that could be where he takes advantage. Borjas, though, has shown he isn’t easy to keep down. I do think Costa is favored due to Brazil's home cooking bias.
I don’t see this getting to the ground often enough for Costa to gain any edge on the judges cards. If they stand and exchange the whole fight, I am very confident in Borjas boxing/striking to overwhelm Costa to kick off UFC 301.
Juicy here, but not worth parlaying with something else. Joanderson Brito (16-3-1, 4-1 UFC) takes on Jack Shore (17-1, 6-1 UFC). I respect Shore enough and some MMA talking heads like Shore in later rounds if they get there. Brito is bigger, stronger, hits harder, and can inflict some serious damage.
Shore wants to grapple and keep control but he should be careful, as I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get caught if he thinks he can come in and take Brito down to the mat. Brito can win in multiple paths and I like those kinds of fighters. He can submit Shore or KO him. Shore has been submitted, but not KO’d, and there is a first for everything.
If Shore tries to get inside Brito, he could expose himself to a submission or take some vicious shots. Brito averages over 4 take downs per match, can grapple, and work his way out of a take down. I expect Brito to inflict powerful strikes when necessary and can see this fight ending inside the distance.
If you have Underdog, I love these props. Oralbai (Orolbay on Underdog) averages over 11 take downs a match and recently had 7 takedowns and a submission versus a very dangerous Urus Medic, who just slept Tim Means last week in Vegas 91.
Lucindo averages 2.5 takedowns per match! She is a grappler at heart, and she wants to get you to the ground and take control there.
If we land on 2 for Lucindo, we still get 1.5x payout. Both are worth the looks as I expect both of these fights to have plenty of take downs and grappling exchanges.
Best Bets:
Kevin Borjas ML (+115) Caesars
Joanderson Brito ML (-165) MGM
2-Leg (3x Payout) Underdog Fantasy:
Oralbai 3.5+ takedowns + Lucindo 2+ takedowns
Top UFC Bonus: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets from DraftKings