After an explosive Game 3 that saw the Guardians mount a miraculous late-game comeback, this ALCS series feels tighter than ever. Frankly, that was one of the best MLB games we’ve seen in a long time.
Jhonkensy Noel's — AKA Big Chrismas — dramatic two-run homer in the ninth sent shockwaves through the Yankees, and David Fry’s walk-off in the tenth completed the comeback.
Cleveland now has a chance to tie the series, but New York still has the upper hand, leading 2-1.
Game 4 will be pivotal. Both teams will be relying on untested postseason starters and that will just add fuel to the fire.
The Yankees will hand the ball to Luis Gil, who posted a strong regular-season record at 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA. Meanwhile, Cleveland will counter with Gavin Williams, who struggled during the season, going 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA.
Williams has had trouble with New York before, giving up three earned runs in just 4.1 innings when he faced them in August. Maybe he can come back and shake that off. Gil wasn’t much better in his last matchup against the Guardians, allowing three runs in three innings.
With all of that said, this might be a battle of the bats.
Moneyline: Yankees (-125), Guardians (+105)
Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+135), Guardians +1.5 (-165)
Total: Over/Under 8 runs
After being one strike away from a commanding 3-0 series lead, the Yankees find themselves needing to regroup.
The bullpen, which has been generally reliable, failed them in Game 3. However, the good news is that Aaron Judge has been heating up, homering in back-to-back games.
Paired with the masterful Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees' lineup has the firepower to test a Cleveland pitching staff that has been heavily used and abused in this series.
The Guardians’ bullpen has been stretched thin as well. Typically the Guardians rely heavily on the bullpen given that it was the best in the MLB throughout the regular season. The New York offense, however, has shown it can take advantage of these tired arms.
Gil may not have a ton of postseason experience, but his consistency throughout the year makes him the more dependable option compared to Williams. The Yankees’ offense should be able to generate enough support to make up for any struggles Gil might have early on. Even if Gil does not dominate from the mound, we think the bats will back him up.
Cleveland’s win in Game 3 was the kind of emotional lift that can change the course of a series. We think every fan of baseball felt that — even those that aren’t fans of the Guardians.
However, we do think it’s fair to question how much the Guardians have left in the tank.
Jhonkensy Noel and David Fry were the heroes of Game 3, but neither had been consistently impactful during the regular season. The Guardians have had some great individual performances, but their offense overall has been streaky, relying heavily on timely hitting rather than consistent pressure on opposing pitchers.
Williams will need to be sharp, but his track record suggests this could be a difficult outing.
New York’s lineup is deep and undeniably dangerous, and with Aaron Judge finding his rhythm, Williams may be in for a tough night.
If Cleveland wants to avoid going down 3-1 in the ALCS, they’ll need their bullpen to hold up once again and still have enough to go to a Game 5, despite being heavily taxed in the first three games.
The Yankees are our pick for Game 4.
While Cleveland’s Game 3 win was nothing short of magical and impressive, the odds favor New York and it’s easy to see why. Especially with Gil on the mound and their lineup clicking at the right time, this just feels like the Yankees time to shine.
Cleveland’s bullpen has been overworked, and the Yankees' offensive firepower, led by Judge and Stanton, gives them a massive edge. Expect New York to bounce back and take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.
Yankees to win on the moneyline is our most confident pick.