The NLCS moves to Citi Field for Game 3, and it’s shaping up to be a huge moment in the MLB playoffs.
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After splitting the first two games in Los Angeles, the Mets are back in Queens, where the home crowd will be electric. It’s the Mets’ first NLCS home game since 2015, and with Walker Buehler facing Luis Severino, we expect a massive battle on the mound.
Here’s our breakdown of the odds, analysis, and our top pick for tonight’s NLCS action.
Dodgers: -1.5 (+148), Moneyline: -114
Mets: +1.5 (-178), Moneyline: -105
Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-113/-107)
Both teams come in fairly even on the moneyline, which is exactly what you’d expect to see when the NLCS teams are paired at 1-1. This is setting up to be a closely contested matchup.
The over/under at 7.5 runs also feels balanced given the potential for offensive fireworks from both sides, despite some recent pitching struggles.
Walker Buehler had a difficult regular season, finishing with an unimpressive ERA.
However, his last three starts (3.31 ERA) showed a bit of improvement. His NLDS Game 3 performance was a rough outing, but he was a bit unlucky as all the damage happened in one inning. With the Mets not having faced Buehler this year, he has the chance to bounce back. He’ll be a fresh look to their entire lineup.
On the other hand, Luis Severino posted a 3.91 ERA in the regular season, but he’s been somewhat inconsistent, especially on the road. At home, though, he has been more effective, with a 2.96 ERA. His playoff starts have been shaky (4.50 ERA), but the fact that both came on the road gives hope for a stronger showing at Citi Field tonight.
The Mets are coming off a huge Game 2 win, scoring six runs in the first two innings. That was the confidence boost they needed to take on the LA powerhouse.
They’ve averaged five runs per game in the playoffs, slightly up from their regular season pace of 4.52.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been key in driving this offense, with Alonso already having a strong history against Buehler. Meanwhile, Lindor’s grand slam in the NLDS reminded everyone how dangerous he can be in key moments.
The Dodgers have consistently been one of the best offenses in the league. With Ohtani in the box, it’s easy to see why. They’re averaging 5.2 runs in the regular season and 5.14 in the playoffs. With stars like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman anchoring the lineup, they are always a threat.
While Buehler’s performance will be a big deal for the Blue Crew, the Dodgers’ bats will need to step up against Severino, who has been up-and-down in postseason play. If he comes out hot and stays hot, the LA bats might be in trouble.
While both starting pitchers have the potential to deliver quality outings, this game feels like another high-scoring matchup.
The Mets’ offense has found its groove at home, and the Dodgers’ lineup is capable of striking at any time. Both bullpens have shown vulnerabilities, which adds to the likelihood of a few extra runs late in the game.
A 5-3 or 6-4 final score seems entirely plausible to us, just as we saw in Games 1 and 2.
Best Prop Bet: Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+115)
Ohtani has been quiet lately, but he’s due for a breakout.
With a .500 career average against Severino, including a home run, this is a spot where we see him coming alive. A lead-off homer or a couple of hits with runners on base should be enough to cash this prop.
Game 3 will be electric as the Mets return to Citi Field. With both teams coming in hot offensively and the pitchers offering more questions than answers, the Over 7.5 runs feel like the best bet to back here.
Expect plenty of action from both sides, with the Dodgers slightly favored to take the game despite a shaky Buehler.
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