The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets face off in the 2024 National League Wild Card Series, and it's a rematch of a series that just concluded over the weekend. We feel like we were just here.
Both teams enter the playoffs with plenty of momentum. However, they'll need to dig deep as they battle for a spot in the NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Brewers, who cruised to win the NL Central with little resistance, will host the Mets, who fought hard for their Wild Card spot against the Braves in a wild doubleheader.
Do you want to catch the game? We bet! Here are the times for each game in the WC series.
Game 1. Mets at Brewers, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 5:32 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 2. Mets at Brewers, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 7:38 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 3 (if necessary). Mets at Brewers, Thursday, Oct. 3, 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Brewers enter the series as slight favorites, but the odds underscore the competitive nature of this matchup. This is why we think it’ll be a wild one that will go all 3 games.
Brewers: -130
Mets: +110
Milwaukee’s strong bullpen and home-field advantage give them the edge, but the Mets have played nothing short of excellent baseball over the last few months, which makes this a tighter contest than it seems.
If you’re going to make some bets on this series, the best thing to do is take a look at the teams side-by-side.
Neither team is known for its dominant starting rotation. There are, however, a few key arms on both sides.
For Milwaukee, Freddy Peralta will take the mound in Game 1. Peralta has strikeout stuff and has been a rock for the Brewers in the second half. He’s posted a 3.06 ERA and is finding consistency with his breaking pitches.
Behind Peralta, the Brewers will rely on Aaron Civale, who has been much better since coming over from the Tampa Bay Rays, and Frankie Montas, who turned his season around after ditching his slider and tweaking his pitch mix. He’s looking really good as of late.
The Mets will counter with Luis Severino in Game 1. Severino has the stuff to dominate, but his postseason track record is a bit shaky. He’s had only one quality start in 10 career playoff appearances.
Behind him, New York has Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea, two veterans who have stepped up big in the second half. Manaea, in particular, has greatly improved after adjusting his arm slot, posting a 3.59 ERA in his last nine starts.
While the Brewers’ rotation might have a slight advantage on paper, the Mets have been strong down the stretch. If Severino can put his playoff woes behind him and pitch to his potential, the Mets could turn this series around quickly.
Don’t forget that game 1 is the most important. 76% of Wild Card Series winners won Game 1 between 2010 and 2020.
This is where the Brewers truly shine. Milwaukee’s bullpen, led by Devin Williams, is one of the best in the league.
Williams, with his “air bending” changeup (it’s insane), has been lights out since returning from injury, posting a 1.25 ERA and striking out 15.8 batters per nine innings.
Alongside him, Trevor Megill and Joel Payamps form a solid setup duo. This gives the Brewers an intense late-game advantage.
The Mets’ bullpen has had its ups and downs this season.
Edwin Díaz, typically one of the best closers in the game, has struggled at times in 2024. This includes a costly blowup in a recent game against the Braves.
However, Phil Maton and Jose Buttó have provided a bit of stability in the second half.
New York’s bullpen posted solid September numbers, but park-neutral projections suggest the Mets’ relievers are about 20 points of ERA worse than Milwaukee’s.
This gives the Brewers a clear edge if games are close heading into the later innings. The Mets will have to get their lead early and pick apart the starters.
These are the biggest matchups in the series and what we’re most excited about. These matchups might even determine who heads on to play the Phillies.
Freddy Peralta vs. Luis Severino (Game 1). This starting pitching matchup is the most important aspect of the series. Peralta has been excellent for the Brewers down the stretch, while Severino will try to shake off his postseason demons. The winner of this duel I think will dictate the flow of the series.
Francisco Lindor vs. Willy Adames. Both teams are anchored by some of the best shortstops in the game. Francisco Lindor has been the heart and soul of the Mets’ resurgence, and his leadership and ability to deliver in key moments will be critical. On the other side of the field, Willy Adames brings power and solid defense to the Brewers' infield. The performance of these two-star shortstops could be the difference-maker in the series.
The Brewers come into this series rested and ready. They have had the luxury of staying in Milwaukee while the Mets have been flying back and forth for a doubleheader in Atlanta.
This extra rest could give them a significant advantage, especially in Game 1.
Milwaukee’s offense may not be known for explosive power, but their ability to grind out at-bats and get on base makes them a tough matchup for any pitching staff.
The Brewers ranked third in MLB in walks and led all playoff teams in stolen bases. Their pesky offensive style, combined with just enough power (four Brewers hit at least 21 homers this season), means they can score in bunches when needed. These types of teams go deep in the playoffs.
The biggest advantage for Milwaukee, though, is their bullpen. They are 2nd in the MLB with an ERA of 3.11.
With Devin Williams closing games and strong setup options in Trevor Megill and Joel Payamps, the Brewers can lock down the late innings. The Mets’ bullpen, by contrast, has been less reliable.
If the Brewers can get to the Mets’ starters early and force New York to lean on its relief arms, Milwaukee should be able to close out games without much pushback.
The Mets have been a resilient team all year.
After a slow start to the season, they played .625 ball over the past four months, one of the best records in baseball during that span.
Their lineup, led by Francisco Lindor and the red-hot Jose Iglesias, can generate bases and runs in a hurry.
Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos have the power to complement their dynamic top-of-the-order, and a healthy Brandon Nimmo adds depth to an already strong lineup.
On the mound, the Mets have quietly put together a solid second half from their rotation. Sean Manaea has been much better since adjusting his mechanics, and Jose Quintana has provided veteran leadership.
The way we see it, if Luis Severino can deliver in Game 1, the Mets could find themselves in the driver’s seat early and never need to look back.
In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz still has the potential to be a shutdown closer, even if he’s had some hiccups this season.
Phil Maton has also been strong in high-leverage situations. If the Mets’ starters can go deep into games, their bullpen might not be exposed to the same degree as Milwaukee’s.
This Wild Card series is set to be a tightly contested matchup. Both teams bring their biggest strengths to the table.
The Brewers have the edge in the bullpen and home-field advantage, but the Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last few months.
Ultimately, the Brewers’ rested arms and stronger bullpen should give them a slight edge. However, if Severino can outduel Peralta in Game 1, the Mets could pull off the upset.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Brewers win the series 2-1.
The Brewers’ balance, particularly in the bullpen, gives them a slight advantage. We think they’re going to move on to the next round against the Phillies.