The American League Wild Card race is coming down to the wire. With around 20 games left in the regular season, several teams are clawing for one of the few remaining spots in the postseason.
From teams that have been surprise contenders to others that have lived up to expectations, the competition is fierce. This is close to the end, and it’s anyone’s chance to make it to postseason glory.
Odds to make it to the playoffs: -2500
Odds to NOT make it to the playoffs: +1200
At 79-66, the Kansas City Royals have completely flipped the script from their disappointing 2023 season. They are sitting pretty in second place in the AL Central, with a 95.5% chance of making the postseason. That’s the kind of turnaround every team dreams of. However, it’s not the AL Central they’re hoping to clinch; it’s one of the 3 wild card slots.
One of the biggest reasons for this resurgence is Bobby Witt Jr. He has cemented himself as one of the brightest young stars in baseball, and watching him is an absolute dream.
Witt’s .341 batting average, combined with a whopping 30 home runs and 98 RBIs, makes him a force at the plate, and every pitcher he faces knows it. And with veteran hitters like Perez and Pasquantino backing him up, the Royals’ offense is dangerous on any given night. Can they keep it up to make it past the finish line? We think so.
On the pitching side, they’ve made all the right moves. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have been solid additions to the rotation. These two powerhouses give them the stability they need on the mound. The Royals also boast a solid bullpen led by Will Smith. Their 45-30 record at home shows how tough they are to beat in their own ballpark.
The Royals have the tools to make it to the postseason, but like we said, the competition is fierce. The rest of the teams are doing everything they can to keep KC from moving on in October.
Odds to make it to the playoffs: -500
Odds to NOT make it to the playoffs: +370
The Minnesota Twins, currently 76-68, are neck-and-neck with Kansas City not just in the AL Central but also in the wild card hunt. The biggest thing with the Twins is that they’ve been a bit streakier this season.
With a -500 odds of making the postseason, they’re right in the thick of the wild card chase, though they’ve got their sights set on the division crown as well. For both KC and Minnesota, the Guardians are just a series or two of moving down into the wild card race.
Minnesota’s success this season has been driven mostly by their pitching. Pablo López has led the charge as the staff ace, while Bailey Ober has been a half-decent and reliable second option. When you add a dominant bullpen with Jhoan Duran, you’ve got a pitching staff that can keep the team in just about any game.
Offensively, the Twins haven’t been as dominant as some of the others in the AL. However, they're certainly capable. Carlos Correa is having a bounce-back year, and if Byron Buxton can stay healthy (big if with him), he’s a game-changer who could give their lineup the boost it needs. Carlos Santana, added in the offseason, has provided some much-needed power in the middle of the order.
Are they fighting for the AL Central or for a wild card slot? Either one, the outlook looks good for the Twins.
Odds to make it to the playoffs: +900
Odds to NOT make it to the playoffs: -1400
At 73-71, the Boston Red Sox are still very much in the hunt for a wild card spot, though, right now, they’re on the outside looking in. They’re currently third in the highly competitive AL East, and their +900 playoff odds show that they have an uphill battle. But with their potent offense, this team could easily make a late-season push.
Rafael Devers has been the centerpiece of the offense. He led the team with 29 home runs and 81 RBIs. Jarren Duran has also been a key contributor, hitting .289 with 28 dingers. If these stars can keep it up, there’s no reason why these bats can’t get them into the playoffs.
Boston’s biggest issue this season has been inconsistency on the mound. Brayan Bello has been their best starter with 13 wins. However, the staff as a whole has struggled to string together dominant performances. Tanner Houck has been pretty good this season, posting a 3.24 ERA and 150 strikeouts, but the rest of the rotation has been a bit shaky. Even if the Red Sox make it into the playoffs, they’re going to need to get their pitching woes together.
While their offense is among the best in the league, pitching is what wins in October.
Odds to make it to the playoffs: +900
Odds to NOT make it to the playoffs: -1400
The Detroit Tigers are in a similar boat to the Red Sox. They’re sitting at 73-71. In fact, they currently have the same odds to make the postseason with +900 odds. They’ve had a gritty season, but their rough start before the ASG is what put them in this position. Throughout the month of August and even into September, they’ve been scorching hot.
Detroit’s offense has been a sore spot all year. With a team batting average of just .234 (24th in the MLB) and only 608 runs (20th in the MLB), it’s painfully obvious that run support is the problem with this team. Colt Keith has been one of the lone bright spots offensively. He’s hitting .260 with 12 home runs. Riley Green, the first-time All-Star, contributed 20 homers and 61 RBIs, both of which led the team.
The Tigers have had some success on the mound. Of course, that’s relative. They have the Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal with 16 wins, a 2.53 ERA, and 208 Ks. He’s also staring down the barrel of a Triple Crown victory. The biggest problem with this team has been the bullpen. Since the trade deadline, the team has maintained 2-3 starters, which means they’ve been reliable on “bullpen days” ever since.
The Tigers would need a lot of things to break their way to snag a wild card spot. They’re not technically out of the race, but they need some help from the other teams in the form of losses. At the very least, at least they’re surging at the right time. That +900 might not be a bad bet.
Odds to make it to the playoffs: +600
Odds to NOT make it to the playoffs: -900
Finally, we have the Seattle Mariners, also 73-71 (see why this race is so tight?). While they’re tied with Boston and Detroit in terms of record, their playoff odds are slightly better at this point with a +600.
Seattle has been much better at home (41-28) than on the road (32-44), and that disparity could come back to haunt them down the stretch. The biggest disparity with this team is the batting and pitching. It’s night and day. They’re 30th in batting average with a .219 and 25th in runs with 588. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez can’t carry the load all by themselves.
Where this team excels is on the mound. They’re 1st with an ERA of 3.51 and 1st with a WHIP of 1.08. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby have all been phenomenal. They’ve got the depth and firepower on the mound to go far, but is it enough?
With 20 games left, Seattle’s fate is far from sealed. They’ll need a strong finish, especially in divisional games, to keep their playoff hopes alive. It won’t be easy, but the talent is there if they can pull it all together.
The AL wild-card race is shaping up to be one of the most exciting finishes in recent years. It’s a lot tighter than the NL race.
Kansas City looks like a lock, while the Twins are in a good position to follow suit. Boston, Detroit, and Seattle are all longer shots at this point, but baseball is unpredictable, especially in September. These final games will determine who gets in and who gets left behind.