As we’re just past the halfway mark of the MLB season and the clubs are quickly approaching the trade deadline, the race for the 6 Wild Card spots is heating up.
Teams are taking a look at their rosters and their odds of making it to the final 12, looking for that missing piece to push them into the playoffs. In the American League, the competition is fierce, while the National League is a bit of a tighter race.
Here’s how the teams are looking and where we think each of them will land.
The AL is showing they’re the dominant league in the MLB. After winning the ASG 5-3, they’ve all 3 wild card teams over .550 whereas the NL only has 1. Here’s how the AL is shaping up as we get under way in the 2nd half of the season.
Odds to Win Championship: +600
Currently sitting at 59-42, the Yankees have a 3.5-game cushion in the Wild Card race. We’re 90% sure they’ll make it into the playoffs one way or another. They’re right on the heels of the Baltimore Orioles for the top spot in the AL East. If it’s not taking the division itself, it’ll most surely be a wild card seed.
They’ve shown consistency throughout the season, with powerhouses like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton leading the way, but they can’t rest on their laurels. Adding a reliable starting pitcher to help out Luis Gil could solidify their chances. The Yankees have a history of making bold moves, and this year should be no different.
Odds to Win Championship: +1800
With a record of 54-44, the Twins are in a precarious position, tied for the second AL Wild Card spot. We don’t think they’ll run down the Guardians for the AL Central, but they’re doing whatever they can for a coveted wild card slot.
Their offense has been strong, with Carlos Correa and Carlos Santana crushing it at the plate, but their pitching staff could use some reinforcement. They currently rank 20th in ERA with a combined 4.15 and 21st with home runs allowed with 116. Targeting a frontline starter or even a shutdown reliever could make the difference. The Twins’ front office needs to act decisively to stay ahead in this tight race.
Odds to Win Championship: +5000
The Royals, at 55-45, are in a similar spot as the Twins. They’re probably not going to take the AL Central from the Guardians, but they are fighting for a Wild Card slot. We could see 3 of the 5 teams in the AL Central make the playoffs, which would be wild.
They have solid talent but need that extra push. Kansas City’s bullpen has been shaky at times, and adding depth there could be what they need. The Royals’ bullpen is near the bottom of the AL with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. This is where they need the most help if they want to remain contenders. A trade for a veteran reliever with playoff experience might be the key to securing their spot in the postseason.
Odds to Win Championship: +4000
Boston is just one game behind in the Wild Card race, with a record of 53-45. Considering they have a .541 win percentage, it’s crazy to think they’re currently on the outside looking in.
The biggest issue with the Red Sox is that they’ve been battling inconsistency. They just came off of a series in Los Angeles where they were swept. They have to do better than that if they want to be in the hunt.
The Red Sox could benefit from acquiring a versatile position player with a decent bat to back up Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers. They currently sit 4th in batting average and 11th in runs, but just one more power hitter could put them over the hump. On top of that, bolstering their starting rotation with even a single mid-grade starter to go behind Tanner Houck could provide the stability they need down the stretch.
Odds to Win Championship: +2500
The Mariners, at 53-48, are 2.5 games out of the Wild Card, but it’s really their pitching staff doing all of the heavy lifting. Their bats are atrocious. We don’t see them making the playoffs, but if they do, they won’t last long unless they turn up the heat at the plate.
Their pitching has been a pleasant surprise this season, but they need to maintain their momentum. Seattle’s focus should be on adding 2-3 decent hitters to their lineup. Julio Rodriguez leads the team with a dismal .263 batting average, and the team as a whole ranks dead last in batting average with a .218. They’re also sitting 28th in runs. That’s definitely not a good look. With the right moves at the plate, the Mariners could turn their playoff hopes into a reality.
The race for the NL Wild Card slots is much tighter than that of the AL. These teams are within just a couple of games of each other, so it’s anyone’s guess.
Odds to Win Championship: +900
At 54-44, the Braves have a 4.0-game lead in the Wild Card race. They’re most likely not going to catch the smoking-hot Phillies, who currently hold the top slot in the NL East, but as for the Wild Card slot, they’re all but guaranteed.
They’ve been strong but face stiff competition. Atlanta should aim to add more reliable batters to their lineup. They’ve got one of the best starters in the league, Chris Sale, and one of the hottest bullpens in the league, but the bats are where they lack. Marcell Ozuna can’t do it all, but he’s trying. He has a .308 batting average and is only 2nd to Shohei Ohtani in home runs in the NL with 28. If the Braves beef up their team at the plate, they’ll go deep in the playoffs.
Odds to Win Championship: +5000
The Cardinals, with a record of 52-47, are 1.5 games ahead in the Wild Card standings. That’s not enough to ensure their place in the playoffs, but they’re showing that they’re going to make a run for it.
The Cards could use the most help in their starting rotation. Sonny Gray is good, but it’s really their bullpen that is holding them up. They’re currently in the middle of the pack when it comes to ERA (3.99) and WHIP (1.26), but if they want to go deeper in the playoffs, they’ll need to reinforce the starting rotation. Perhaps a bat or two would do good for the team as well.
Odds to Win Championship: +5000
At 51-49, the Diamondbacks are in a virtual tie for the third Wild Card spot. There is no chance they’re going to catch the Dodgers for the top slot in the NL West.
They’ve been competitive but need to add some key pieces. Ranking 25th with an ERA of 4.45 and a WHIP of 1.33, the D-Backs really need some help on the mound. The bats are not too bad, as Ketel Marte and Christian Walker have been fairly consistent all season, and Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suarez could get on a streak at any moment.
Odds to Win Championship: +5000
The Padres, at 52-50, are also in the mix, tied with the Diamondbacks and Mets. San Diego has the talent but has underperformed at times when they needed it the most. While they have a potential Rookie of the Year with Jackson Merrill, ROYs don’t get you in the playoffs. They’re just one component.
We think the Padres need to beef up their bullpen if they want to push past the Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card slot. Collectively, their bullpen has a 4.26 ERA. That’s just too much if they want to get into the playoffs and last more than a round or two.
Odds to Win Championship: +15000
At 50-49, the Pirates are just 0.5 games out of the Wild Card and their odds to win it all are astronomical. They’re currently on the outside and looking in, but with the young phenom Paul Skenes, it’s hard not to like the Pirates for the playoffs. After all, this kid has had a wild year, and the playoffs would just be the icing on the cake.
Despite the energy on the mound, the Pirates really need to get some consistency at the plate. The team has a .233 batting average and a .300 OBP. That puts them in the lower third of the MLB and it might not be enough to get them into the playoff picture.
We’re not sure if Pittsburgh will be buyers or sellers come July 30th, but if they fix the problems at the plate, they could be a serious contender.
As the trade deadline approaches over the next week, these teams must take a hard look at their needs and make bold moves.
The AL teams face tougher competition, but with strategic acquisitions, they can secure their Wild Card spots. In the NL, the race is tighter, and every game counts. There are currently 9 teams within striking distance for the NL Wild Card and over the next 2 months that race is going to be intense.
The teams that act decisively and add the right pieces will have the best chance of making it to the postseason. The next few days will be crucial, and fans can expect an exciting finish to the regular season.