The Home Run Derby is one of the most exciting events, not just in baseball but any sport. After all, everyone loves some homers. And when you have something as popular as that, surely there’s going to be some bets. That’s what we’re about.
This year, the derby lineup is stacked with some of the best sluggers in the league. Each of these names has a shot at the title.
While that makes it more fun to watch, it also makes it more difficult to bet on. Any one of these powerhouses can break away and walk off with the batting title.
The Home Run Derby has a new and unique format that makes it as thrilling to watch as it is to bet on. Here's a quick rundown of how this year’s event will unfold.
All eight players will go head-to-head simultaneously. That’s a bit different from previous years, where each of the players was paired up in a head-to-head matchup. Each batter gets 3 minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first, to hit as many home runs as possible. A single timeout is allowed to help players catch their breath. The top four performers with the most home runs advance to the semifinals.
The four remaining players are seeded 1-4 based on their home run totals from the first round. This is also where we get back to the more traditional HR derby format. Matchups are set as 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3. The rules remain the same as the first round: 3 minutes or 40 pitches per batter, and of course, they’ll get their single timeout.
The final showdown has the two remaining sluggers. The winner of each of the head-to-head matchups will come together for a final head-to-head matchup. This time, the action is slightly shortened to 2 minutes or 27 pitches. Each player still gets one timeout.
Sure, those rounds seem fairly straightforward, but there are a few additional rules added to the mix. After the initial time or pitch limit, players get three bonus outs to hit more home runs. If there's a tie, the longest individual home run distance is used to break it. And lastly, any homer over 425 feet during bonus time can earn an extra bonus, adding even more opportunities for some dingers.
This year's lineup features a mix of power hitters and emerging stars. While we like what we see here, keep in mind that these are the players who have committed to entering the Derby. The MLB’s leader in homers this season, Aaron Judge (32 HRs), declined to join in the event. While these eight are crushing it this season, there are a few who have chosen not to join in for various reasons.
Pete Alonso (New York Mets, 1B)
Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies, 3B)
Adolis García (Texas Rangers, OF)
Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles, SS)
Teoscar Hernández (Los Angeles Dodgers, OF)
Marcell Ozuna (Atlanta Braves, DH)
José Ramírez (Cleveland Guardians, 3B)
Bobby Witt Jr. (Kansas City Royals, SS)
Each player brings their own strengths and betting potential. Let’s take a look at their profiles and betting angles.
Odds to Win the HR Derby: +300
Pete Alonso is a seasoned Derby player with a proven track record. Known for his incredible power, he’s one of the favorites to win. His experience in high-pressure situations gives him an edge over some of the others in the field. His 18 yard bombs on the season isn’t the most in the league, but he does much better when he’s crushing balls for BP. Betting on Alonso is a solid choice if you're looking for a strong contender.
Odds to Win the HR Derby: +1600
Alec Bohm is an underdog with a strong upside potential. His power at the plate is impressive, but we’ve noticed that his consistency can be hit or miss. While we think the +1600 odds are a bit steep, it does make sense. If you're looking for a high-risk, high-reward bet, Bohm might be your guy. He’s definitely got the power to break away from the field, but his 11 homers on the season have us a little worried. His odds will likely be longer, so a small bet could bring in significant returns if he performs well.
Odds to Win the HR Derby: +350
Adolis García has had a breakout season with the Rangers. His 17 home runs and his raw power is undeniable, making him a strong candidate. He can go on impressive streaks, which is really important in the Derby format. Betting on García could be a smart move, especially if you're looking for a player who can deliver under pressure.
Odds to Win the HR Derby: +550
Gunnar Henderson is one of the young talents in this year's Derby. His power is still developing, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. He’s already having a career season with 27 homers which puts him just behind Judge and Ohtani. Betting on Henderson is a gamble, but his potential to surprise should not be underestimated. Keep in mind that the Derby isn’t all about veterans. The young players often pull off some surprises.
Odds to Win the HR Derby: +1000
Teoscar Hernández is a consistent power hitter with his 19 dingers this season. His experience and steady performance make him a reliable choice. He may not have the longest odds, but his consistency means he could be a safe bet to make it to the finals. Hernández is a solid pick for sports bettors who prefer less risky bets.
Odds to Win the HR Derby: +425
Marcell Ozuna is a wild card. His performance can be unpredictable, but when he’s on, he’s absolutely unstoppable. Ozuna’s power can turn the tide quickly, and when you look at how he’s doing this season with his 24 homers, it's not a bad bet. Betting on Ozuna could be risky, but his ability to rack up homers in a short span makes him an exciting choice to load up your bet slip.
Odds to Win the HR Derby: +1200
José Ramírez brings a combination of power and consistency. He’s a seasoned player with a good track record in clutch situations. He’s got 23 bombs on the season which puts him just behind Judge and Henderson in the AL running. We think betting on Ramírez is a balanced choice, offering a mix of reliability and the potential for big moments. He can easily break away, especially with the bonus pitches, if and when he crushes them beyond 425’.
Odds to Win the HR Derby: +600
Bobby Witt Jr. is another young star in this year’s Derby lineup. His power is impressive, and he’s already shown in his short career that he can handle pressure. Betting on Witt Jr. is a bit of a gamble due to his inexperience, but as we mentioned before, sometimes it’s the young stars that stand out. Remember, Aaron Judge won the Derby in his rookie season, but then again, that’s Judge. Anything can happen. Bobby’s upside is significant with his 15 homers on the season. He’s a sleeper pick who could go far if he hits his stride early.
We absolutely love the HR Derby. It’s full of excitement and festivities, and it’s a time that some of the best batters in the game can let their hair down and have fun with one another.
Betting on the Home Run Derby adds just a bit more excitement to an already thrilling event. By understanding the format, evaluating the players, and using strategic bets, you can potentially win big with just a couple of bets.
Whether you’re looking to bet on a veteran like Ramirez or even one of the young studs like Henderson, someone is going to win the Derby and you have the opportunity to cash in on that.