Tuesday was a fantastic night for the good guys, as we went 3-1 with our MLB player props. That runs the yearly ledger to 143-111 and we're feeling great about the rest of the week. A mixture of Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios, and Chris Flexen got us to the pay window!
Our lone loss was on Jose Soriano, who continues to be a bit of a mystery. How can you throw 99 mph and only strike out 4 against the A's? Anyway, let's get to the 3 player props we found for Hump Day! Good luck, sports betting family!
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HOU at TOR - 7:07 PM EDT
Yes, I know that Kikuchi has excellent stuff and his K-rate is pretty good. However, this is an awfully high line for the books to hang against a very good Astros lineup. Houston only fanned once against Berrios last night, and they all seem to be seeing the ball well, even without Kyle Tucker in the lineup.
The thing that sold me on this Under was Kikuchi's lifetime K-rate against this Houston squad. The veteran lefty has only posted a 13.9% strikeout rate against these Astros in 101 plate appearances. Houston's expected batting average against Kikuchi is also a very impressive .293.
All in all, I think Kikuchi winds up with about 4 Ks in this one. I also see him only going 5 innings or so. Give us the Under to kick start our Hump Day!
SD at TEX- 8:05 PM EDT
A lot of bettors shy away from the plus money plays because they don't think they hit often enough to mess with. I am not in that camp! Our plus money selections have continued to hit well over 55% the entire season, and this number on Mr. Gray is another solid investment opportunity.
Gray is a gamer and I like his bulldog mentality. That being said, he's not a bigtime strikeout guy. The veteran righty's K-rate against this Padres lineup is just 15%. San Diego has 5 hitters with strikeout rates under 18%.
Gray's metrics also suggest that some regression is coming soon to a theater near you! His ERA is 3.77, but his xERA is 4.56. He has a nice slider, but I still don't see him getting more than 3 Ks against this tough offense.
SD at TEX- 8:05 PM EDT
Let's stay in the same game to close out our Wednesday card. Mazur has lots of potential, but he's had a rough go of it through 5 big league starts. I would normally avoid a guy with such a small sample size, but I'll take a shot since his median K number is just 2.
Mazur throws 95 mph, but he's struggled with his command so far. That could be an issue against this Rangers lineup that's starting to finally come around. Texas never seems to strike out much against righties.
The Rangers have 7 players with K-rates below 20.4%, so Mazur should have a hard time getting strikeouts in his 6th Major League start. This one's juicy, but it's the only way to play it!