We suffered a 2-3 setback last night with our MLB player props. We nailed our 2 winners on Zack Littel and Brayan Bello, but 2 tough luck losses on Seth Lugo and Austin Gomber ruined what would have been a nice evening.
I'll be honest. I'm still a little bit ticked about the Lugo loss. There were several blown calls by the home plate ump, and the full count pitch he called a ball was technically in the strike zone. Okay, enough ranting. Let's get to the plays!
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SEA at TB - 12:10 PM EDT
I'm still bullish on Pepiot, even though he burned us pretty bad on Friday night against the P'Rats. The young righty's last 2 starts have been a little bit concerning, but this is a good "get-right" spot for him against a very strikeout prone Seattle offense.
I hate to sound overly simplistic, but if Zack Littel racked up 6 Ks last night against this team, there's no reason Pepiot can't get 7 or more today. The M's have 7 players with strikeout rates above 26%.
Pepiot also has stellar strikeout numbers on the season. He has a 27.8% K-rate that ranks in the 84th percentile. His whiff is also very good, thanks to a 95 mph fastball that he locates pretty well when he's on. Let's get this Over for an early afternoon sweat!
COL at HOU - 2:10 PM EDT
Each Wednesday, BetMGM gives all of its clients a 33% Odds Boost token that can be used on any MLB game, as long as the odds are -300 or greater. Incredible offers like this are why BetMGM is known as the King of Sportsbooks!
I used this generous promo on Feltner's under to bring it from -120 to +110. How nice is that? Anyway, let's talk a little bit about why we like this play.
Feltner's median strikeout number is just 4 this season. He's struck out 4 hitters or less in 9 of his 15 starts in 2024. The 27-year-old has pitched well of late, but I'm expecting some regression against a tough Houston lineup.
Speaking of that Houston lineup, they don't strike out very often against righties. The Astros have 6 players with K-rates at or below 19%. That's enough for me to pull the trigger on the Under!
CLE at BAL - 6:35 PM EDT
Carrasco has really improved his command this season after a disastrous 2023. I think that moving back from New York to Cleveland was probably the best thing for the veteran righty. Sometimes a change of scenery can help rejuvenate a player's career.
The 37-year-old has stayed under this walks number in 5 of his last 6 starts. Carrasco has a lifetime walk rate of only 2.3% against this Baltimore lineup. His season-long walk rate of 7.5% ranks respectably in the 57th percentile.
The Orioles don't walk all that much. Their lineup is chocked full of young hitters that love to swing the bat early and often. Balty has the 2nd lowest walk rate in MLB against righties. Let's cash in on this evening Under!