Thursday was another trying day for the home team, as our MLB player props stumbled to a 1-2 mark. We've lost 5 strikeout props by the dreaded hook this week, but that's just part of the game.
As I've mentioned before, investing in sports is a lot like playing cornerback. You have to have a short memory and just play the next play. On that note, here are 5 plays that I love for Friday, June 14. Best of luck, sports betting amigos!
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I know some folks get tired of me playing these Unders on a low K number like 3.5. However, you have to remember that the hardest wagers to place are usually the best ones. Allen is definitely a pitch-to-contact type of guy, so that works in our favor.
The 25-year-old has a very good changeup, but none of his other pitches are all that impressive. Allen only hits 91 on the gun with his fastball. His high ERA of 5.57 also means that he could be in for a short evening against this Toronto squad.
The Blue Jays do a great job of putting the ball in play. While their overall production has been down, they simply don't strike out all that much. Toronto has 6 players with K-rates under 17%. Let's ride the Under!
Manaea has burned us a couple of times this season, but I still think this is a good spot to fade him in the strikeouts department. Even though his overall K-rate is pretty decent at 23%, that dips to 19.6% when facing these Padres hitters.
San Diego is a great team to ride if you like playing strikeout props to stay Under their respective totals. The Padres have 6 players with K-rates below 17%. Heck, Luis Arraez and Luis Campusano both strike out less than 13% of the time.
Manaea's stuff isn't all that great, but he does get lots of extension. That being said, I look for him to hang way too many sweepers in this one. Let's play another Under at a decent price.
Man, ain't it great to see Chris Sale back to his old dominant self? The veteran lefty could be well on his way to the NL Cy Young Award if he keeps up his current form. The 35-year-old is 8-2 this season with an insanely high K-rate of 31.1% (91st percentile).
Sale still throws pretty hard at 95 mph, but his best pitch is still the slider that causes lots of hitters knees to buckle. As long as he has that pitch working tonight, he shouldn't have any trouble racking up at least 8 Ks.
Tampa Bay has been striking out a little less against lefties of late, but they still have one of the highest K-rates in baseball against southpaws. I expect Sale to lots of swings and misses in this one! Take the Over!
Wooohooo! Y'all know how much I love watching Freddy Peralta pitch, and he should feast against this Cincy lineup tonight. He has carved up these Reds hitters in the past to the tune of a 35.7% strikeout rate.
We all know that Will Benson and Elly De La Cruz are exciting young players for the Reds. However, these two kids tend to swing for the fences. That means that they hit lots of homers, but they also strike out a ton.
Both Benson and De La Cruz have K-rates well north of 30%. That tells me that Peralta could get 4 to 5 Ks against the 2 of them combined. Look for Peralta to put that changeup to good use tonight at home.
Stone looked great on Sunday Night Baseball against the Yankees, but I still don't think he's a legitimate strikeout pitcher. Even with that good outing, his K-rate is still only 18.9%, which ranks in just the 27th percentile.
The 25-year-old from Central Arkansas also gets a tough matchup (at least strikeout-wise) tonight against Kansas City. The Royals have 7 guys in their lineup with K-rates below 17.4%. Guys like Nick Loftin and Vinnie Pasquantino do a great job of choking up on the bat and putting the ball in play with 2 strikes.
Yes, I know that Stone's median K number is 5 this season. However, I adjusted that down to 3.5 just because of Kansas City's low strikeout rate as a team. Take the Under to cap off the week!