Today's contest between the Phillies and the Brewers pits THE BAT's #17-ranked SP (Freddy Peralta) against the #49-ranked SP (Ranger Suarez). The rundown on Peralta tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 52.3% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (26.2%). Suarez is a sinker guy (44.7%) who brings a changeup as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Peralta deserves something like a 5.07 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 11.57. On that front, Suarez's ERA sits at 5.87 and his FIP at 5.03.
Brewers Insights:
Former Phillie Andrew McCutchen has exhibited some bad exit velocity metrics in recent games, averaging 95.4-mph on the top 5% of his batted balls over the past 7 days.
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Freddy Peralta projects as the 8th-best pitcher in Major League Baseball as it relates to his strikeout ability, according to THE BAT.market
Phillies Insights:
Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-lowest humidity on the slate today at 38%.
Matt Vierling is very fast, putting him in the 100th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.87 ft/sec this year.market
Ranger Suarez has been lucky with his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting an 8.86 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 7.46 — a 1.4 K/9 gap.
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