It’s going to be a beautiful day in New York, a sunny afternoon in the heart of the fall, and we’re going to focus all of our handicapping and wagering attention there, as at Aqueduct, for closing day of the absurdly named “Belmont at the Big A” fall meet, it is New York Showcase Day, where there are ten races, seven of them stakes, all for horses bred in the Empire State. We have plays in three of the stakes, and expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them. Let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 6, 3:16 pm ET
$150,000 Iroquois Stakes, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
A field of eight lines up for the Iroquois. There’s a lot of speed in the group, especially 1-Leeloo and 4-November Rein; we see the two of them hooking up early, running very quick fractions, and setting the table for 7-Betsy Blue, who should get an absolute dream trip, sitting just behind and outside the dueling speedsters, moving forward when they begin to shorten stride.
We will bet Betsy Blue to win at 2-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 6, $40 to win on 7-Betsy Blue.
Aqueduct, Race 8, 4:21 pm ET
$200,000 Ticonderoga Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Ten state-bred filly and mare turf runners go to the gate in the Ticonderoga. The pick is 5-Runaway Rumour, who has the best finishing kick in the field, which we think will be useful, as the presence of a couple of no-hope speedballs in the field should produce a fast early pace that favors closers. Look for Runaway Rumour to be flying late; we will bet her to win at 7/2. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $40 to win on 5-Runaway Rumour.
Aqueduct, Race 9, 4:43 pm ET
$250,000 Empire Distaff, 1 1/8 miles, Dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Eight go in the Empire Distaff, but we have eyes for just one: 7-Brattle House, who has been competing, and competing quite well, against open company, but who here drops in against state-breds. She might be worth betting on that basis alone, but we think she has another advantage: she looks like lone speed in this group. We think Brattle House goes right to the front, and stays there all the way around the track. The last time she ran against New York-bred competition, she won by 7 ¾ lengths; she might not win by quite as much today, but we think she will get the job done, and will consequently bet her to win at 2-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $50 to win on 7-Brattle House.
That’s all for today. Until the next time, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.