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Friday’s Race Recap from Belmont at Aqueduct:
(All odds US)
Replays for yesterday’s races from Belmont at Aqueduct can be found here:
Aqueduct:
Race 1: 5th@ 22.10/1
Race 5: 5th@ 13.90/1
Race 6: 4th@ 1.80/1
In Race 1 we sided with the debuting Just a Splash who looked loaded til the top of the stretch, when she was switched out and got a little leg weary. She’ll benefit from the race but may benefit from the cutback. In Race 5, Mattapoisett stalked the early pace and never mounted a serious rally finishing 5th. In Race 6, Itsallcomintogetha was pocketed up early, swung out for the drive and was moving best of all but too late and checked in 4th.
It’s Pennsylvania Derby Day! As a tribute, I’ll be including the theme song to the legendary American movie “Rocky” which was shot In Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
We’ll be taking a look at some racing from Parx and one race from Belmont at Aqueduct. Fast and firm conditions are expected at both tracks. We’ve got TWO BEST BET’s - one at Aqueduct and one at Parx. Let’s make some money.
Saturday at Parx:
Race 7: Too Boss - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 9/2)
The Parx Dirt Mile is for three year olds and older. Mind Control is our 6/5 morning line favorite but such short odds on a runner who has three wins since last year - all by smaller margins. I’m trying the other Todd Pletcher runner, Too Boss, who comes into this race off back-to-back wins. This has the feel of a pass-the-torch race as Mind Control moves off to the breeding shed. Too Boss loves this track - he’s won 3 of 5 starts here: His speed figures stack up nicely and 9/2 odds sound just fine!
Race 8: Ridin With Biden - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
The Grade 3 Greenwood Cup at a mile and a half is one of the main prep races for the Breeder’s Cup Marathon. Todd Pletcher’s charge, Fearless, is our heavy favorite and he’s 3 for 6 this year with three second place finishes and just feels like he’s found his niche running in these longer distance dirt races. But this race has produced its fair share of longshot winners in the past and while Pletcher’s numbers overall at Parx are strong, he’s only 1 for 7 in Graded Stakes run in dirt routes and none since 2018. For that reason I’m sidin’ with Ridin With Biden, who’s trained by locally-based Robert Reid. Ridin With Biden is another improving runner who cracked triple digits on the speed figure scale two races back at his longest distance to date. As the probable controlling speed here he may just prove too tough to run down.
Race 9: Nothing Better - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
From dirt marathoners to turf sprinters, Pennsylvania Derby Day has it all! We’ve got a fairly evenly matched field in the Grade 3 Turf Monster and I’d like nothing better than to see a victory by Nothing Better in this spot. The Jorge Duarte trained son of Munnings cuts back from a mile to 5 furlongs and that should give him the edge here while the rest are getting tired late. This runner is 4 for 9 at the 5 furlong distance and that’s more wins than anyone in the field at this distance. 4/1 odds are fair here.
Race 10: Jelly Nougat - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 15/1)
The Grade 2 Gallant Bob at 6 furlongs is restricted to three-year-olds and this is a very evenly matched field so I’m looking away from the favorites. Jelly Nougat is an interesting runner and one who will fly under most people’s radar. He’s running in the name of a local trainer but was recently transferred from the 17% winning barn of Joe Sharp, a much more well-known trainer. My guess is that Sharp wasn’t able to get his trainer’s license in Pennsylvania so Ernesto Padilla is a paper trainer. This one has been running longer distances and facing older rivals in some tough allowance races at Churchill Downs. Those races have produced several next out winners and Jelly Nougat has run competitively in each of those. What I like best about this runner is the fact that they seem to have been targeting this race and looks to be the only non-locally-based horse who’s been working here at Parx since late August in preparation for this. He’s listed at 15/1 on the morning line but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s higher than 30/1 by post time and is worth an upset look at long odds.
Race 11: Adare Manor - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
The Grade 1 Cotillion for three-year-old fillies will be a prep for some for the upcoming Breeder’s Cup Distaff. Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath is our 2/1 morning line favorite but she’s danced every dance this year and I’m looking for a new face. Adare Manor has a ton of steam behind her as the whispers on the backstretch are that she’s been working up a storm. It’s doubtful we’ll get the 7/2 morning line odds on Adare Manor and there’s a chance she’ll even vie for favoritism with Secret Oath. Trainer Bob Baffert has a knack for winning these Grade 1’s at Parx and she looks perfectly spotted here.
Race 12: Skippylongstocking - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
The Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby is the marquee event on today’s great day of racing from Parx and we get a great matchup of runners from the Triple Crown trail now pointing to the Breeder’s Cup. I don’t necessarily have much to say about going against the favorites as they look fine but once again I’m siding with an improving runner who will offer better odds who has already put up speed figures that match with the best of these and Skippylongstocking is that runner. Silly names aside, this horse has shown he can run, first finishing third behind subsequent Belmont Stakes winning Mo Donegal and Preakness winning Early Voting in the Wood Memorial. He raced in the Preakness and came up a little short, then finished third behind Mo Donegal and subsequent multiple Grade 1 winning Nest in the Belmont Stakes, so he’s been keeping great company. Last time out he finally got away from the heavy hitters winning the West Virginia Derby off a pace-stalking trip. He’s been working well since that victory and trainer Saffie Joseph won this race in 2019 with Math Wizard at 31/1 odds. At long odds, Skippylongstocking will be on my win tickets in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Saturday at Belmont at Aqueduct:
Race 1: Dreampoint - 2 pts win - BEST BET (US Morning Line Odds: 5/2)
New York-bred fillies and mares square off going a mile and a sixteenth on turf. Dreampoint is by far the most experienced runner in this group with 19 starts under her belt. She’s also got some of the fastest speed figures in this field. There’s speed in this race that’s been having some trouble sticking it out til the end of races. Dreampoint’s got the best closing kick in the field and looks tough to take down.
Best of luck to all our members playing Saturday’s races from Parx!