RT’s Spot Plays
08.24.22
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Saratoga R2|Post Time: 1:39 pm ET
Dirt 7 Furlongs |State Bred 2YO Fillies MSW|Purse: $88K|
With two races in her book and Equibase scores of 65 and 67, money burner 3-Gambling Girl (1/1), at those odds, has sucker belt written all over it. Researching a few databases, it is rare for a horse with two races under its belt with almost identical scores to elevate past their previous outcomes. Furthermore, her sire, Dialed In, is just a 9% win prop in this situation. Yes, she has Pletcher/Irad in her favor, yet she had that in her last race and was beaten by almost seven lengths. Lastly, her two works leading into this race have been pedestrian. Regardless of the $200K paid for this filly, she is a pass.
1-Sweet Blush (9/2) is a $180K filly by Candy Ride, a 5% winner with two year old fillies debuting in maiden special races. In addition to being such a low prop, her last work was a :48.1 breeze from the gate, which is solid, yet three works back, on August 7, she did a 1:02.5 for five furlongs, showing that she will struggle at seven furlongs today.
In a tale of barns going in opposing directions, Rudy Rod’s 5-Maddie’s Grace (7/2) put in a marginal first try last time and came up short, getting a small check for the show placement. Rodriguez is 1/66 this meet and adding 1.5 furlongs to a so/so effort in her last is not a bet I would back. My choice is 7-August Bloom (5/1) trained by Joe Sharp, who is knocking the cover off the ball for 2yo’s this year. She is out of Mighty Eros, by New York leading sire Freud, who scorched her first two races in her racing life, winning by a combined total of 17.75 lengths. Mighty Eros has four foals, one who won in its bow, and all four have scored Equibase numbers as high, or significantly higher, than the favorite has run in their respective debuts. Her July 24 work of 1:00.3 from the gate shows she is fit and having second leading rider for the meet Luis Saez in the irons is a tell.