RT’s Spot Plays
08.01.22
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The Mid-Atlantic Pick Four
Monmouth Park R6|Post Time: 4:17 pm ET
Dirt 1 Mile|3↑OC16k/SAL8k|Purse: $31K
Using our homemade program SmartCap, we get 2-Flowers For Lisa (5/2), 3-Awesome Launch (4/1), and 7-What’s To Blame (10/1) with the predominate numbers. 5-Friendly Fella (3/1) is worth a look given his last GTW win by nine lengths and trainer Claudio Gonzalez a respectable 18% with last out winners.
Notable works since last race et al stats. 1-Aequor (6/1) put up a :48.1 since his last race, yet his trainer is 0% at the distance. His record at Monmouth is 10:4-1-2, yet he is 1/17 at the distance. Toss. Flowers For Lisa worked a 1:01 on 7/21 and his trainer is 19% at the distance, 17% with class down, and the jockey is 15% in routes. Friendly Fella was 5/54 in the morning of 7/22 with a strong :47.5 work. His trainer is 23% at the distance and his jockey is just 8% at the distance. He cuts back 70 yards, which could be a major factor. That said, his fractions last out were pedestrian, and he will be challenged by two others in this, so the easy trip he got last time does not seem in the cards today. Jomar Torres, just 6/63 in routes makes Awesome Launch a tepid play, yet he returns to the irons after getting him to run his career best 93 Equibase number two back. This Fort Larned gelding has the strongest numbers in this group and in that race two beck, every runner took a hit in Equibase numbers, so a bounce was eminent. If that pattern holds true, the only horse left exiting that race is Flowers For Lisa. What’s To Blame is a longshot contender given his connections have toiled with his last two races when he was running well in early June. Today, they have him stretching out, which his pedigree shows his natural affinity for, and he gets an experienced jockey as opposed to the apprentice last time.
Conclusion: I believe Flowers For Lisa is a false fave, so my picks are What’s To Blame, Friendly Fella and Awesome Launch.
7-5-3
Colonial Downs R7|Post Time: 4:33 pm ET
Dirt 7 Furlongs|3YO Housebust Overnight Handicap Stakes 100k|Purse: $100K
Again, using our homemade program SmartCap, we get 2-Conagher (5/2), 8-Old Homestead (4/1), and 10-No Sabe Nada (15/1) with the predominate numbers.
Notable works since last race et al stats. 5-Exxel (8/1) has worked well since his last. A :47 on 7/25, a :48.8 on 7/18, and a 1:00.5 on 7/9. Those were at Canterbury before shipping here and his trainer is only 8% in class up. Old Homestead put up a 1:01.4 on July 25 and is 5:4-0-0 for this year. 9-Zatip (6/1) is a logical choice with trainer Graham Motion taking him through logical steps from MSW win to allowance win in his last, and now into stakes. He is a definite include. No Sabe Nada is a dangerous type from the outside who, if on his game, can get there for a price.
Conclusion: Since four of the ten runners scratched, this is narrowing the field and lowering your ticket cost. Conagher has by far the best numbers, and two of the eight entrants in his last, including the winner, Ain’t Life Grand, have returned to win. Only one other exited that race, ran fourth, and had a big improve in Equibase scores. Old Homestead has shown a huge lift in improvement in his last two, so he will be included. No Sabe Nada is worth the price in this as he can stalk and pounce late.
2-8-9-10
Monmouth Park R7|Post Time: 4:45 pm ET
Turf 1 Mile|3↑ Fillies and Mares Clm 12500|Purse: $27.5K
Finally, for SmartCap, 3-Pugilist (3/1) towers above the rest with 9-Centsless Drama (5/1) a very distant second.
Notable works since last race et al stats. There are zero notable works. 1-Kitten With A Whip (5/2) is a false favorite with Patricia Farro being 10% off the claim and 6% class up. Pugilist has the overwhelming SmartCap numbers and upside potential to improve off the sharp 92 Equibase score in her last. Censtless Drama is going to get bet down and as a 6yo hitting his lifetime best number last out, there is no improvement expected; in fact, I look for a bounce. 7-Daddy’s Joy (10/1) is a dangerous type who gets Samy Camacho back for a second look and his Gulfstream numbers were competitive for this field. This will be this Daddy Long Legs mare’s second look at the track and can stalk Centsless Drama and overtake her.
3-9
Colonial Downs R8|Post Time: 5:01 pm ET
Inner Turf 1 Mile|3↑ MSW |Purse: $60K
12-Street Fight (3/1) has the best last Equibase number yet is far outside with a short run up to the turn. He is cutting back in distance from his last, a July 11 race at this track, and gets a return jockey in 15% router, Joe Rocco. 8-Chenti (8/1) gets first Lasix today and looks like a new horse on turf. 11-Tepper (9/2) put up a bullet :48.4 after his last 80 Equibase score in his last on July 11th. 7-Dear Santa (6/1) by Tiznow, out of the Unbridled’s Song mare Simply Sunny, has two foals that both won on first ask.
12-11-7-8 are the logical contenders.
$0.50Pick 4 - 3,5,7 / 2,8-10 / 3,9 / 7-8,11-12
$48