Those who have been been a bit critical of today’s big event, the Pegasus World Cup card at Gulfstream Park, which would include us, have to admit that the folks down in Hallandale Beach have hit the jackpot with the weather, not so much in South Florida (though it will be fine there, with sunny, breezy conditions, and temperatures in the low 60s), but in the Northeast, where millions of sports fans and gamblers between Baltimore and Boston will be stuck inside, snowed in by a massive coastal storm that is expected to last until Sunday. It is therefore an excellent day to put sunny skies and stakes races on the televisions of sports fans, and we hope that races live up to their potential, from both a sporting and wagering perspective.
We have five plays today, four from Gulfstream plus one in Arkansas, the Southwest Stakes, a key early Kentucky Derby prep at Oaklawn Park. We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all of them, so let’s go.
Gulfstream Park, Race 5, 1:27 pm ET
Grade 3 La Prevoyante Stakes, 1 ½ miles, Turf, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
Nine older females line up for the La Prevoyante. They have, as a group, virtually no early speed, but one of them will get the lead, and will get a big advantage in the process. We think this is a case where the jockey intent may be more important than the tendency of the horses. For this reason, we like long shot 7-Scarabea, who will be ridden by Irad Ortiz. We see Ortiz going for the lead with her, and getting it, and she just may get brave on the lead, especially since she has the looks of a late-bloomer, having just broken her maiden in her eighth and most recent start, and her best races could still be in front of her. We will bet Scarabea to win at 15-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 5, $30 to win on 7-Scarabea.
Gulfstream Park, Race 8, 3:03 pm ET
Grade 2 Inside Information Stakes, 7 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
A good field of ten fillies and mares lines up for the Inside Information. 8-Just One Time is a strong play: Her last two starts might have been at Penn National, a second-tier track, but the speed figures she earned in each of them are very legitimate, and mark her as a major win contender. She has speed and an outside post position – look out. We will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 8-Just One Time.
Gulfstream Park, Race 11, 4:49 pm ET
Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, 1 ⅛ miles, Turf, 4 & Up
The field of the Pegasus World Cup Turf came up strong, with a dozen entrants ranging from good to very good. We like 9-Field Pass, a Mike Maker trainee who comes off a brief layoff here, but whose last two races before the vacation were very good, a win in the Seabiscuit at Del Mar in November, and a runner-up finish in the Knickerbocker at Belmont in October. He has a high cruising speed, which should keep him reasonably close to the early leaders, and also possesses a strong finishing kick. This combination is good everywhere, but it is especially lethal on Gulfstream’s speed-favoring turf course. We will bet Field Pass to win at 10-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 11, $40 to win on 9-Field Pass.
Oaklawn Park, Race 9, 5:22 pm ET
Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds
The Southwest is the first serious Derby prep of the year at Oaklawn Park, and they’ve put together a terrific field, with a dozen sophomore colts hoping to take a step toward the first Saturday in May. We’re against the favorite, 10-Newgrange, who earned a very good speed figure in his last start, but who did so beating up on a small field of weak horses in California. These horses are almost always underlays when they ship East and run against a big field, but they are typically absurdly overbet when they start, as Newgrange does, for a certain white-haired trainer based on the West Coast. We wish we could book the bets of the punters willing to take 8/5 on a horse who won his last race by beating four horses who would all probably be 50-1 in this race.
We like 6-Osbourne. He did not win his last race, which was in a minor stakes at Remington Park in December, but he did finish a close second, and there was a lot to like about how he ran that day, especially that in just the third start of his career and his first around two turns, he earned the best speed figure of his young career. When young horses do this, when they run a bit faster in a route than they ran sprinting, it can be a sign that they will run even better in their next start, which would be this spot for Osbourne. This is doubly true, we think, because he has a pedigree (he’s by Tapiture, out of a Rock Hard Ten mare) that suggests that he will be better in longer races than he was in sprints. Add it up, and we think Osbourne is a square price at 6-1; we will bet him to win. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 9, $35 to win on 6-Osbourne.
Gulfstream Park, Race 12, 5:34 pm ET
Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 4 & Up
There are nine entrants in the Pegasus World Cup, but on paper it shaped up as a match race, with 6/5 morning line favorite 1-Knicks Go, who won the Breeders Cup Classic, and and 7/5 second choice 4-Life Is Good, who won the Breeders Cup Mile, appearing to tower over the rest of the field in both ability and current form. But they both having similar running styles – they like to be in front early – and it would seem that a decision by either rider, Joel Rosario on Knicks Go and Irad Ortiz on Life Is Good, to concede the lead to the other would be to give away the race. It is not that hard to envision a scenario where both jockeys, in trying to establish early position, go too fast early, and leave them both vulnerable late.
This is exactly what we think will happen: a good, old-fashion speed duel, one that will set the table for a horse to win from off the pace. We think the horse who will do that is 7-Title Ready, who has the best late-pace numbers in the field, and who consequently should be closing strongly in the race’s latter stages. His recent morning workouts have been very strong, suggesting that he is ready for a top effort, and while he’ll need some help to contend – if the early fractions are moderate, he probably has no chance – we think the race shape will favor him. Title Ready is 20-1 on the morning line, and could be a good bit higher at post time; we will bet him to win. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 12, $40 to win on 7-Title Ready.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, stay safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.