Maiden America 10.31.2021
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Churchill Downs Race 5 - $200K Stakes
2yo’s going 8.5 furlongs on dirt
4-Yuugirl (2/1) likely to be bet down radically, here is my take. Of the 46 stakes races by 2yo’s that we have tracked this year, four had one race with a 90 Equibase figure or above and only two won. 2/46 are not my kind of odds, so Pass. 2-Mama Rina (3/1) chasing Juju’s Map and Hidden Connection in her last two, both Graded Stakes, she had no chance of winning. The compelling part is er final odds of those two races, 31/1 and 29/1, they are seemingly right. Pass. 5-Dressed (5/2) Wayne Catalano 20% from turf to dirt, yet not comfortable with the transition today. Pass. 1-Manasota Sunset (8/1) has had four cracks to break the 76 Equibase number and will not today. Pass. 3-Sandstone (5/2) of the 30 msw runners with zero stakes races documented to date, 13 have come from msw races. Of the 71 horses we have documented with $200+ stakes experience, only two winners have won. The choice.
Churchill Downs Race 10 - $200K Stakes
2yo’s going 8.5 furlongs on dirt
6-Howling Time (5/1) see explanation above about Yuugirl. Pass. and 4-Red Danger (7/2) 7-Lucky Boss (6/1) and 5-Kiss The Sky (3/1) all come from a $500K Kentucky Downs turf stakes. I find Kiss The Sky as the most compelling because of being the favorite in his last and game effort. I am not convinced that his turf to dirt switch is enough. Use underneath. 9-Red Knobs (5/1) put in a game effort when last seen here on September 18th. Two solid works of 1:01 and :47 shows he’s in for a solid effort. Use underneath. 3-Skippylongstocking (6/1) smoked his last, a 55K maiden special, getting an 85 Equibase number. Last work of :59 and this move up makes him my pick
Happy Hunting 😊