Maiden America 08.21.21
Hooptie Handicapper
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Congratulations to Wesley Ward, Tyler Gaffalione, the staff at Hat Creek Racing and the UK Cats Breeding program with Averly Jane in yesterday's Skidmore Stakes. She certainly put on a grand performance, winning by just a little bit over seven lengths in 1:03.79. Are there any shares left?
Let’s start this Saturday with some Loo-Zee-Anna breds in a stakes race at Lousiania Downs and see if there is a certain filly that may make some noise this spring. This will be race two on the card, and is to be decided at six furlongs on the dirt. There are four contenders to talk about, and they are 2- Wholelottamo (7/2) 8-Charged Temp (2/1) 4-Free Like A Girl (6/1) and 7-Puddins And Me (12/1). I am tossing out 8-Charged Temp (2/1) and the favorite, 1-Streak of Silver (9/2) based on stats of 2yos going from stakes to stakes being not a good betting proposition. Immediately getting tossed is Puddins And Me because both of her races have been against state breds and there are others who have raced against tougher company. Free Like A Girl goes the same way as Puddins because the only win she has was against similar staties. That leaves Wholelottamo, which on her own merit, is a very good choice. Wholelottamo, on the sire side, is out of a cajun dad named Mo Tom who ended up with a respectable 19/4-2-4 record for $665K and qualified for several graded stakes, yet never did much in those, with his best a fourth place finish in the Louisiana Derby to Gun Runner. The dam, ran five times, breaking her maiden at second ask, then scoring an allowance at Belmont before retiring to make babies. She is by AP Jet, who is by Fappiano and concluded his 36-4-4-3 for $1.4M earnings in Japan. So, Wholelottamo shipped in from Lone Star for this and popped a :47.4 and :48 for trainer Scott Gelner and Tim Thornton and she is my pick.
The 1st race at Saratoga is the most interesting race that I have delved into. This is a $100,000 maiden special race for 2yos racing six and one half furlongs. This race will boil down to two horses. Todd Pletcher trained 1a-Major General (3/1), who is out of Constitution, and Chad Brown trained 6-Triple Elvis (5/2), who is out of Into Mischief. Take your pick because I cannot. I was going to take 8- Raymond (3/1), Steve Asmussen's colt because he has debuted Into Mischief colts with nearly the same success as the other two mentioned. However, at Saratoga, his successes, numbers-wise, do not stack up with Brown's or Pletcher's. So, it’s Irad/Luis, Todd/Chad. Hmmm…take your pick. Either is justifiable.
The 7th race at Saratoga is for maiden 2yos negotiating six and one half furlongs on dirt. The purse for this is $100,000. I am selecting 3-Triumphant Road (12/1) predicated upon his mom, Foxysox, debuted a win with a 96 Equibase score and none of her sons have debuted at two years old
The last two races are stakes from Woodbine and race three is the $125,000 Soaring Free Stakes for 2yos running six and one half furlongs on the turf. Mark Casse has two entrants with 1-Twenty Four Mamba (7/2) and 5-First Empire (2/1). Godolphin has 6-Degree Of Risk (4/1), and Steve Asmussen has 4-Heaven Street (5/2). Twenty Four Mamba and Degree Of Risk have not raced on turf yet, and common thought is the switch from poly to turf is easier than dirt to turf which I find that without basis. That said, Twenty Four Mamba just worked a 12er on Woodbine’s turf course on August 15, so he has a solid chance. Heaven Street tried dirt twice and switched to turf, finally graduating at seven and a half furlongs. He gets second time Lasix, so improvement is likely. First Empire has raced twice, the first on dirt, which was a disaster and when Casse switched him to dirt, he went gate to wire in 1:10.1. He had a 12er on August 14, so he’ll be a tough out. 3-Silent Farwell (6/1) debuted while running against First Empire and what struck me in that race is his acceleration through the turn. As a previous 911 owner, I know this feeling when you enter a sharp turn, you slow just a little with no brake and nearing the apex of the curve, you grind down the accelerator and make the car work negotiating the turn and sling-shotting out. Silent Farewell did exactly that move in his debut and finished just three fourths a length behind First Empire after ceding three lengths down the backside. He will be my choice due to the optics of this move. With only six horses in this field, David Moran will be able that around the turn to his advantage today.
The $125,000 Catch A Glimpse Stakes is the 6th race on today’s Woodbine card and it will be for 2yo fillies negotiating six and one half furlongs on turf. 2-Diabolic (2/1) is the likely winner in this as she has done everything asked of her for trainer Mark Casse. She has run at or above Equibase par for her two races thus far and just clanked a :47.8 work on August 15. 1-Curlin Candy (3/1) had the lead on Diabolic in her debut last out and got smoked down the lane. An improvement on return can be danger. 7-Silver Magnetized (6/1) is from the Kevin Attard barn and will be one to be reckoned with today as she’s coming off a strong maiden win in her second try (first on turf). She put up a 12er at five furlongs a week ago. Mark Casse has another filly 3-Mrs Barbara (12/1) who may cost bettors money if she’s not included in their vertical wagers and exotics. She has the wherewithal to take this race and at 12/1, I’m in.
Happy Hunting 😊
PS- check out Beef Winslow at Del Mar 4th today. He looks interesting.
*Breeze figs Defined
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June