Maiden America 08.20.21
Hooptie Handicapper
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It’s 2yo Friday. Nine races to look at, so let’s get crackin.’
In the 1st race at Pimlico, Brittany and Sheldon are bringing back their filly 1-Murph (1/1) for this six furlong sprint on the dirt. After researching the other five entrants, she’s going to win this and at 2/5, why bother?
Moving to Gulfstream, in the 2nd race, for $12.5K you can buy the likes of fillies like 5-Wow Tapit who is by Cairo Prince and out of a filly by Tapit. Or you can get 6-Lady Younes, who is by Goldencents and a broodmare by Forestry who went 11-7-1-2 in his career. There’s 8-Del Ray Dolly by California Chrome by granddad Ghostzapper and 11-Ballymena who is from Poseidon’s Warrior via Kitten’s Joy. I merely mention this because I am not betting or handicapping this race, yet if you have a place for a filly with excellent lineage, there are a few in this race to choose.
In the 7th race at Gulfsream, there are 2yo fillies racing in open company on the turf, going seven and a half furlongs for $70,000 and carrying 119 pounds. 9-Kelsey’s Shot (7/2) looked game digging in last time and a repeat of that front end effort will score.
At Ellis Park in the 3rd, this is a $51,000 maiden special for two year old’s who will be negotiating one mile on the turf. I’m not keen on the 9/5 colt 6-Lemonadeatthebeach, the first time starter out of the Brad Cox barn. Instead, I am going with second time starter 1-Mondo Gold (8/1) who debuted at this course on July 23 and got hung in traffic, getting up for fourth by a near two lengths. His turf distance pedigree comes from his grandpa, Johar, who went 16/6-4-2 for $1.5M including the BC Turf Mile. Since his last race, Mondo did a 12er with a :48 and a sub 12er with a :59.8 on August 14. He’s ready.
In the 6th race at Ellis, queued up are 2yo fillies in a $51,000 maiden special event decided over six and one half furlongs on dirt and this is a veritable who’s who of racing. We have Steve Asmussen returning 8-Howboutsemapples (5/2), a Tiznow filly with Rafael Bejarano aboard and she just missed by a neck in her bow in early July at seven furlongs. Godolphin has Brad Cox entering two for them, a Pioneer Of The Nile filly by Bernardini in 1-Martareya (4/1), and a Ghostzapper filly from Bernardini as well 1a-Dreamalot (4/1). They’re loaded today. Rodolphe Brisset has a Goldencents filly from Eskendereya who has two races thus far, improving well in her second, 3-Golden Sights (8/1). Dale Romans brings out a Malibu Moon two year old for her bow, she is by granddad Yes It’s True, 6-Cancel This (7/2), Bernard Flint has 7-Jalebi Baby (12/1) back for her third try and she has been working splendidly for this. She is by Bayern out of Cebu. Norm Casse has a Elm Drive’s daddy, Mohaymen by Indian Charlie, 10-Moon Over Tuscany (12/1), who just nailed a :47.4 and 1:00 works at Ellis of late.
This race is a toss-up. I do like the price on 10-Moon Over Tuscany, and her works. She’s the bet.
In the 7th at Ellis, a $51,000 maiden special going five and a half furlongs on the turf, this too has an all-star cast much like the sixth race. 9-Win For The Money (5/2) by Mohaymen, has been working like a madman, recently crushing a :46.6 and :47.8 from the gate. Practical Joke has an entry 4-Legendary Lore (8/1) by City Zip whose Mama is Mystic City, a very useful turf mare, who had a 23-4-4-1 on the grass. Practical Joke has had just two foals’ debut on turf and both had excellent breeding in their background for grass. Lore’s mom has had one. All three have shown game effort on debut, yet none won. Maybe Practical Joke isn’t a turf sire?
Based on what I have dug up, this is a chalk play with Win For The Money
Moving to Saratoga. In the 2nd race, an $85,000 maiden special for 2yo staties, I’m taking Luis on a choice that has scratched twice due to AE listings, 6-Makin My Move (9/5). Yes, another chalk play, yet based on pedigree, breeze fig, workouts and a hot jock, he should nail this.
The 5th race at The Spa, another $85,000 maiden special for staties, features 2yos stretching out on the turf to one and one sixteenth miles. After two races thus far, we have seen the best of 2-Resilient Courage (7/2) and I do not think he’s strong enough to match others in this. 8-Achilles Heel (5/2) could fit into the same as Resilient, however, his debut was at Churchill in May and returned to action on July 28 on the stretch out, scoring a 65 Equibase number. Getting to today’s par of 71 does not seem a tall order and he had a cozy freshening on August 13. There are two today that can perhaps beat either of the ones mentioned. 10-Stop The Spread (30/1) who finally put a race together once the connections realized longer is better, and 3-Kingham Hill (12/1) by Declaration Of War. His two 12er works from the gate shows a readiness.
This is a pass race for me. I may take a shot on a tri using the above four.
The $120,000 Skidmore Stakes is race 9 at Saratoga and it will be five and a half furlongs on the dirt, changed from the turf. With that, Averly Jane (2/1) appears to be the one to beat. I am taking a shot with a price 6- Bonus Application (12/1) which could be in poor judgment. However, this is purely a percentage play because when I delved into the database, 2yos that have two races experience and go from a stakes race to a stakes race, are 0-fer. Two-year-olds that go from msw to stakes are 21% and those with two msw races are 38%.
Happy Hunting 😊
*BreezeFigs Defined
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June