Recapping last time, as written, if any of the horses in the field was going to beat Buckingham Prince, it was Stolen Base and he did just that. Buckingham Prince paid $2.50 to place, giving us a loss for that race. Meanwhile, a tractor hit the rail at Ellis, causing the remainder of the card to be moved to the turf and I bagged that seventh race in lieu of the eighth. In the 8th, the choice of Mondo Gold petered out. As he came five wide in the stretch, the pace got away and he had little left in the tank; getting up for fourth.
Today we have two races – one from Colonial Downs and the other from Indiana Grand.
Colonial Downs Race 1 - $50K Maiden Special
Two year-olds going five furlongs on turf.
#3 Conagher (3/1) has had three races to date and has scored low 80’s Equibase numbers in all three, seizing the lead in his last before tiring. Today he'll try turf for the first time and will get a first dose of Lasix. He has had two recent sharp workouts at Colonial, yet where this would normally be a live play, the change of surface is not in his pedigree and of the ten other starters in his last race, seven of them have returned and scored relatively significant lower Equibase numbers. I will certainly use him in exotic bets, however, to win is a tough call.
Evidently the connections felt strongly about #2 Magnolia Midnight (4/1) to pay $320K for him at auction as he is out of black type winner Midnight Storm, who was 15/7-1-1 on turf for $1.2M. As you can see from the above, he tested in Group 1 for his breeze figs.* To date, first time starters of Group 1 two year olds are winning at a 25% clip, so his chances look solid. Since mid-June, he has had five solid works, including two from the gate and a recent :48.2 breeze. He’ll get race day Lasix today and pending all goes well from the start, he will be a contendor. #1 Savage Sailor (7/2) is out of American Pharoah and his dam was an unraced daughter of Tapit, neither are prolific turf horses from the breeding shed. On the asset side, he has put in eleven works since late May, so being fit for this race is in his favor. #3 Leoville (4/1) is out of the hot first time starter barn of Michael Stidham (21%) and with jockey Mychael Sanchez, they are winning at a 50% clip. His sire, Munnings, has turned out his fair share of turf specialists, including Om, who rung up $1.3M on grass. Given the choices, and if the betting public does not keep Conagher at reasonable odds, #6 Hungry Henry (12/1) is going to be my choice as he is one of two that has prepped for this race at more than four furlongs, hitting a 1:01.2 breeze on June 27th.
Indiana Grand Race 8 - $36K Maiden Special
Hoosier bred two year olds going five furlongs.
#12 Venice Beach (2/1) is not worth the low price as he just was dropped into the claiming ranks and lost by over six lengths. Granted that was not against state runners only, yet Equibase rated that last race as a 63 and today’s has the exact rating, so if he cannot beat claimers at the same level, then he is a pass. #2 On The Raydar (4/1) had his bow on July 8th as the second choice in the betting and ran up on winner Oro Azteca before ceding to second place. Oro Azteca had two previous races, so his experience and On The Raydar’s inexperience played strongly in the outcome. On The Raydar returned to training on July 20 and posted a solid breeze of :48.6. Tom Amoss 14% with second time starters. My choice for this is #1 Humble Warrior (12/1) who’s sire, Mohaymen is 32% for first time starters and he just worked a 1:01 breeze for the gate – a time that equals the experienced runners during their races.
Happy Hunting 😊
*BreezeFigs Defined
Simply stated, a BreezeFig is a speed-figure that combines the time of the work (speed), stride length, angulation, segmental distances in the body and a unique “thrust” factor for each horse that breezes at a 2-year-old in training sale. A true biomechanical study of a horse in motion it works just like most other speed figures—the higher the number, the faster and classier the horse should be— regardless of breeze time and stride length alone. Based on a three-year analysis of live races at a major track we found that 76% of horses that finished first, second or third had the same characteristics detailed above. With the advent of digital video technology, DataTrack also analyzed breeze show data yielding a “Par” BreezeFig for each sale. Fewer than 10% of the horses in any sale turn out to be stakes caliber. The Pars for each sale are so close that we have developed a “National Par” BreezeFig so that horses with similar BreezeFigs can be compared from year to year. BreezeFigs are calculated separately for colts and fillies, and for each breeze distance (one eighth, a quarter mile, three-eighths, sometimes half a mile) and surface (dirt, synthetic, turf) for each sex.
There are four Groups:
G1: Horses qualifying on all Speed, Stride Length and other proprietary numbers;
G2: Horses qualifying on all but one of the above factors;
G3: Horses that qualify on one of the above factors;
G4: Horses that are non-qualifiers on any of the above factors
Class Edge High
OBSMAR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-March
Class Edge Good
OBSAPR, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-April
EASMAY, Fasig-Tipton in Maryland in mid-May
Class Edge Moderate
OBSJUN, Ocala Breeders' in Ocala in mid-June