Maiden America 7.07.21
Hooptie Handicapper
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Yesterday we had a board sweep starting at Penn and Uncle Roamie taking the lead straight away and dusting the group. Dreaming of Gerry gave way early when challenged by Mac Ninety whilst chasing Uncle Roamie. Dreaming of Gerry did give a late surge to get us the exacta, a modest $14.40 on $8 bet with Uncle Roamie paying $7/$2.80. At Presque, the betting public laid off Titrate and made our choice Grounded the favorite, who took the lead in the stretch and held his head way high, like one happy boy, when crossing the finish line first. He paid $4.60/$2.80. The connections have $430K plowed into breeding fees and auction prices for this guy, plus he’s out of Medaglia d’Oro and his mom is from Empire Maker, so he may be worth keeping an eye on.
Today we have a couple of two year old races to cover. One is from Arlington Park and the other is from Indiana Grand.
Arlington Park Race 6 - $34K Maiden Special
2yo’s going five furlongs
Making #7 Richie's Palace (5/2) the morning line favorite is confusing. Yes, trainer Larry Rivelli is 21% with first timer and yes, his dam, Bay Point Countess has five foals which two won at first asking and a third just missing. Yet, if the best you’re getting is two :49 works and one gate work of :36.4, then it’s nothing I would mortgage the ranch over. #2 Degree Of Risk (5/1) is a Godolphin filly out of Cairo Prince and Wipe Out, whom is out of Hard Spun, that has two terrific gate works of :47.6 and :47.8 and then a breeze of 1:02 last time. This is the dam’s first foal, and she was un-raced, so there is no history to draw from. His daddy, Cairo Prince, crushed his first two races getting 86 & 100 Equibase figures, respectively. This colt may fly under the radar on the tote board and that may be an error. #8 Mr. Creed (4/1) has turned in excellent works of :47.6 from the gate and :35.6 from the gate. Those were at Keeneland, and the change of surface to this synthetic may be a better transition than we have seen of late with horses that have trained there. I am going with #5 Tough To Tame (7/2) who, in my opinion, gets a positive jockey change from Declan Carroll to Sophie Doyle. He raced 12 days ago and at the three sixteenths mark, got within ½ length of the leader before passing tired horses late, getting up for second. For that effort, he scored a 67 Equibase figure. Given the propensity with second Lasix, his second effort, he should score around an 83-85 Equibase number. That number would knock out the favorite, Richie's Palace, whom I think is incapable of getting that number today. I am taking an exacta on 5/8-5, 2-5/8 and Tough To Tame to cross first.
Indiana Grand Race 8 - $34K Maiden Special
2yo fillies going 5.5 furlongs
I have narrowed this race down to two horses and am off the morning line fave #10 Mariah’s Fortune (2/1) who has eight workouts with her first two at three furlongs and her last six at four furlongs. Had this been a five furlong race, I may have thought differently. That extra half of a furlong will make the difference. #3 Chopin Drive (6/1) just clocked a 1:00.8 work for Philip Bauer, who is 25% with first timers and #9 Joyrunner (9/2) who is my choice, has been working out like a crazy lady hitting a 1:00.4, :35, :47.8 and a :34.8 from the gate. This filly is going gate to wire today.
Happy Hunting 😊