The first Grade 1 races of the year, the Pegasus World Cup and Pegasus World Cup Turf, will be run this afternoon at Gulfstream Park. There are also five graded stakes on the undercard in South Florida, and there also stakes in New York, Arkansas, and Southern California. It’s a terrific day of racing for a midwinter Saturday, and while we can’t cover them all, we have plays in six of the stakes, from Aqueduct to Gulfstream to Santa Anita, a six-pack of action to stave off the fact that those of us north of the Sun Belt are still mired in deep winter.
We expect fast dirt and firm turf in all six races, so let’s go.
Aqueduct, Race 3, 1:20 pm ET
$100,000 Jazil Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 4 & Up
Five go in the Jazil, a perfect race to wet one’s handicapping whistle on this action-packed day. The deserving 7/5 favorite is 5-Backsideofthemoon, who wired the field in a similar stakes race at the Big A on Dec. 19, earning a big speed figure in the process. But we’re against him, as he will be a short price, and he’s 9 now, and it is fair to wonder if Father Time is going to catch up to him in what would be his third tough race in a row.
The pick is 1-Musical Heart. He’s another veteran, a 6-year-old, and while he finished second to Backsideofthemoon last time, we think he’s rounding into form, and is sitting on a big run. And at 2-1, he offers better wagering value. Look for him to press the pace and grind his way to the front late. We will bet him to win. Aqueduct, Race 3, $20 to win on 1-Musical Heart.
Gulfstream Park, Race 8, 3:09 pm ET
Grade 3 La Prevoyante Stakes, 1 ½ miles, Turf, FIllies & Mares 4 & Up
A full field of twelve older females goes to the post in the La Prevoyante, a cracking good betting race. Pace, as always, will be an important factor in determining the winner, as this field came up short on speed, and that will likely lead to very slow early fractions, a bunched field, and a winner who can run the last half-mile the fastest. This is European-style turf racing, and will be a reminder of why the Euros put so much emphasis on a horse’s ability to fishing strongly.
We like a filly at a price, the Canadian import 12-Court Return. She was good enough last year to finish second in the E.P. Taylor, a Grade 1 at Woodbine, and at 4, she seems still to have quite a bit of upside. And she’s got the best closing kick in the field. At 10-1, we’ll bet that her late charge will be enough to get her the prize; we will bet her to win. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $30 to win on 12-Court Return.
Gulfstream Park, Race 10, 4:13 pm ET
Grade 3 W.L. McKnight, 1 ½ miles, Turf, 4 & Up
The McKnight is another turf marathon, and it drew a field of eleven. The pick is 11-Channel Cat, who runs second off a layoff today, and who has the perfect running style here, a strong finishing kick coupled with enough cruising speed to stay reasonably close to the early leaders. We also think he will enjoy the company: he has been running in very, very tough races, Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes, going back to 2019, and we think he’ll find the shallower waters of this Grade 3 much to his liking. We will bet him to win at 9/2. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $40 to win on 11-Channel Cat.
Gulfstream Park, Race 11, 4:59 pm ET
Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, 1 3/16 miles, Turf, 4 & Up
Twelve go in the Pegasus World Cup Turf. We like 8-Anothertwistafate, who ships to Gulfstream from Southern California, where he took the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes in his last start. He has good early speed, and we expect him either to set the pace, or to be just off it, and to prove tough to catch from that forwardly-placed position. We don’t see horses ship East from California all that much, but Anothertwistafate has done so with intent, we think, as trainer Peter Miller appears to have him primed for a top effort. We will bet him to win at 5-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 11, $35 to win on 8-Anothertwistafate.
Gulfstream Park, Race 12, 5:44 pm ET
Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup, 1 ⅛ miles, Dirt, 4 & Up
The field of twelve in the Pegasus is about what you’d expect in a Grade 1 race: deep, talented, and very, very tough. Particularly imposing is the form of 5/2 morning line favorite 4-Knicks Go, who has reeled off three terrific races in a row, including a wire-to-wire win last out in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland in November. If Knicks Go runs back to the speed figure he earned in the Breeders Cup, the rest of this field is running for second money.
But we have several reasons to be skeptical that Knicks Go will be able to replicate that effort. The first is how he won his Breeders Cup race: he did so on the lead, and while the fractions were quick, the track at Keeneland that day was lightning fast, a conveyor belt over which speed horses dominated all day. We think he’s far more likely to regress than to repeat that effort, which means that at a short price, he’s a bet-against.
We’re going for a big upset here, and it’s with 3-Independence Hall. This horse has always had ability -- at one point last year he was an early Kentucky Derby favorite -- but he hasn’t really been able to show it, partly because he’s been running in shorter races, and partly because he has been facing such tough competition (he last ran in the Malibu at Santa Anita, which Charlatan won with a world-class run). We think Independence Hall is better than his form shows, we think that this nine furlong distance is just about perfect for him, and we think that his recent morning workouts, which are sizzling, show that he is sitting on a big race. Independence Hall, it says here, is a serious threat to win the Pegagus World Cup, and when you see a horse you like and he’s 20-1, there’s only one thing to do -- go to the windows. We will bet him to win, and we will do so with gusto. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 12, $50 to win on 3-Independence Hall.
Santa Anita Park, Race 7, 6:57 pm ET
Grade 3 Palos Verdes Stakes, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 4 & Up
The Palos Verdes has long been a key early-season sprint race in Southern California, so it’s good to see that this year’s edition drew a good field of eight. We like an entrant from the Bob Baffert barn, 6-Ax Man, who has been running in longer races, but here cuts back to a sprint. We love cutbacks in general, but we especially like this one, as Ax Man has a running style that we think is more effective around one turn than around two. Look for him to press the pace from his outside position, and to win with a big move around the far turn. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 7, $40 to win on 6-Ax Man.
That’s all for today. Until tomorrow, enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.