Parx Racing 12.15.20
Things started well yesterday, then went down the biffy. Betting low level claimers is another “what I learned about handicapping during the 2020 shutdown” isms. The answer? Stay away for these reasons -
You have no idea what kind of deal was cut before the race by current owner/trainer to prospective owner/trainer
A $50K optional claimer is going to race as expected; a $5K claimer is a crap shoot
Yes, jockeys want to win, yet if you were in that profession, which race would you give 100% effort to, the one that has a $30K purse or the one that has an 8K?
We’ll see how the track plays today post yesterdays quagmire.
Race 8 - $35K Optional Claimers C
PA fillies and mares 3↑ racing six furlongs
#6 – Madam Meena (5/2) deservedly, is going take the money in this race. With a 2020 record of 11:6-2-2 for $200K, an 8:4-2-1 record at Parx for $118K, 6:2-2-1 for $114K at the distance and Ness/Rodriguez hitting 25% winners, the choice is logical. Ness saddled five yesterday and the best he did was 3rd, of course, sloppy tracks are always a tossup, so we’ll see if he has better luck today. If this filly stays near even odds, she’d be worth a look. #3 I’m The Talent (7/2) Laurel shipper for Scott Lake glad to be back in Philly where she sports an 8:4-1-1 record for $156K. Returning to race after ten days, she comes into this in razor sharp form and has a pressing style that will make this pace daunting. She could wire today. #5 Promised Storm (5/1) smoked a big number last out in mid-October, vet scratched on Nov. 4, and gave two dull workouts. On the asset side, Regina Brennan’s barn hot the past two months hitting 25% winners. Additionally, this mare out of Pulpit is 21:6-8-1 for $300K at Parx and 6:2-3-0 for $85K this year. Tossing out her attempt at turf two back in The Mrs. Penny Stakes, Talent has been competitive all year long. Regular rider Luis Ocasio, in the top ten at Parx, returns to the irons today. #4 Dreamers Moon (9/2) is another front runner who gets Jeremy Laprida back today. This past summer, Laprida defeated allowance rivals three times in a row in longer distance engagements. It’s been six weeks since we’ve seen this granddaughter of Distorted Humor and the shorter trip will be much appreciated. She will be one of my bets, along with #8 Isabella Smile (6/1). This deep closer will have four horses dueling on the front end and the pace will be such that her chances of getting a late shot will be excellent.
Race 9 - $50K Optional Claimer N1X
Two-year olds going 6.5F
#1 Garban & 1a Zertz (2/1) were both tested at Ocala and ended up with over par results, an over par stride length, and subsequently, they both were quick to break their maiden. Zertz appears to be the better of the two, yet neither has raced against winning horses. For that, and the price, I’ll pass. #3 Alpha Chi Rho (6/1) getting leading rider Mychael Sanchez a nice coup for the Viands barn. Having excellent breeding, his dad is the Jim Dandy and Travers stakes winner Alpha and his mom is out of Unbridled. They shipped him, after breaking his maiden, to Saratoga for a go in the Funny Cide Stakes. He was bumped at the gate, ran up to near the leader and eventually gave way. Benched since early September, he’s had a steady diet of works, including the most recent :48 flat. My choice is #4 Run Casper Run (7/2) after breaking his maiden at Colonial, he ran in the G1 Champagne at Belmont facing the likes of Jackie’s Warrior, Midnight Bourbon, and Reinvestment Risk, all potential Kentucky Derby entrants. He never was much of a contender, yet the experience had to be invaluable. Interestingly, every horse who came out of the Champagne, ran a subpar race the next out. The connections for this Ghostzapper colt put him in The Central Park Stakes, an eight-and-a-half-furlong turf event late last month. Why they did that is a mystery. Three works since arriving at Parx and he should be a contender. As an aside, I will put Alpha Chi Rho in the mix. Sanchez and his agent must know something about this colt in order to agree riding him.