Finished the weekend on an up note with Niko’s Dream taking the race and paying $24.60 and $7.60.
To date, $299 bet $317.70 returned, 6.25% roi
This week is the last week of the spring meet at WRD and it has been a huge learning experience… and profitable. For years, I have heard people speak of the benefits of following one track and after never paying heed, I am, in the words of Tic Toc McGlaughlin from the movie Seabiscuit, “eating four and twenty blackbirds all baked up in some humble pie.” What I have learned:
The rail is dead
Speed is dead
Shippers from TuP, Sun and Zia are not a favorable bet.
Shippers from OP were a solid prop
First out shippers from Mahoning Valley were an excellent prop – including a 44/1 that I hit
On Mondays, for some odd reason, Cabrera and Broberg were an excellent tandem.
Ty Kennedy is an excellent mud jockey, especially in routes
Look for more from one track from me in the future.
Today is the $55K The More Than Even Stakes at Will Rogers Downs. The weather has been clear and warm, so the track has dried from last weeks rains.
Okie bred girls are going a mile and a sixteenth this afternoon.
Running the Equibase speed and class numbers through SmartCap, it is evident that there are not too many horses in this race that have much stakes experience. The inversion in the row $$ highlighted down the left in dark green denotes that (see below).
#9 She’s Shiney (8/1) has best overall class and near best overall speed. She is third off a layoff and has a substantial WRD record of 5: 2-0-1 for $58,438 or $11.7K per outing. #5 Spring Steen (7/2) since she was Born In The USA and Born To Run, maybe today she’ll be the horse who does The Rising, crosses The River and later dons Greetings From Asbury Park? Kidding aside, she is running in her first route in a year and she has a propensity to fade. #1 Country Daisy (4/1) gets best last, third best speed and class and has bested this group last out. As mentioned, the rail is dead and of she gets trapped on it in the backstretch, she’ll not be there at the end. #2 She’s All Wolfe (12/1) showed up at WRD for the Cinema Stakes, went off as the fave and won it going away. She’s back a month later and like Rodney, getting no respect from the oddsmakers. I certainly would include her in exotics and maybe a w/p bet due to jockey Goncalves and trainer Von Hemel win 30% together. She returned to OP and has had two workouts since. The first was a brisk :47.8 for 4f and the second was 4f in :51.4. The last one is subject to interpretation and I believe it’s a “get your head in the game” sort of workout. As stated earlier, Broberg/Cabrera on Mondays brings us #7 Inagoodway (9/2). She will be closing late and is the one to keep and eye on. Her near miss last time in a $28K allowance showed her coming out of the 10 hole, getting a jump to the lead, going four wide into the backstretch and chasing the speed. She had a nice blast in the deep stretch after finally tiring. The inside post position today will give her a better start and she’ll be near the lead.
I am going to go with #5 Spring Steen. The switch to Ty Kennedy and her third race in six weeks with the improvement in last signals her shape. Yes, she’s stretching out, however, Ty Kennedy will have a stranglehold on her to save ground.
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Happy Hunting 😊