It's a Sun Belt kind of Wednesday, with spring still a few weeks away here in the Northeast. With rain in the forecast in Florida, we are going to turn our attention to Sam Houston Race Park in Texas, which has a very playable midweek card. The forecast there is cloudy, but dry; we expect fast dirt and firm turf in Houston today. Let's go.
Sam Houston, Race 2, 1:51 pm ET
$25,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 furlongs, Dirt, Texas-breds 4 & Up
This state-bred maiden claimer drew a field of seven. The 8/5 morning line favorite is 2-Forti, who has run well before, but his two career starts were a long, long time ago: he's a 6-year-old who last raced in April of 2018, nearly two years ago. He drops from a Maiden Special Weight race into a $25k maiden claimer; the class drop doesn't bother us much, but what does is that he comes from a low percentage barn and has only one published workout leading up to today. That last bit is an especially large red flag to us: we'd like to see a long string of morning drills to show that he's fit and sound; instead, we get one published work, which was at three furlongs on February 5. We suspect that Forti has been working somewhere privately, and he may be good enough to beat this field, which is admittedly pretty weak, but at a short price, he looks to us like a mammoth underlay, and a play against.
We like the horse just to his outside, 3-Expect a Cat. This 4-year-old has had 15 chances to break his maiden, and has not yet done it; this is bad, we doubt that he's seen a field this weak before, and he appears to be a physically sound horse, as he's run consistently, with four starts since November, and he's run OK in all of them. He would probably be the favorite, and a pretty prohibitive one, if Forti were not in the field, and since we don't like Forti, we will play him to take advantage of the inflated price we will get due to Forti's presence. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Sam Houston, Race 2, $30 to win on 3-Expect a Cat.
Sam Houston, Race 5, 3:24 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies
The 5th at Sam Houston today is a first-level allowance/optional claimer for sophomore fillies. 9-Lady Shaman comes pretty close to our idea of handicapping perfection: she is undefeated, having won her lone career start, a maiden race over this course on January 10; her last-race Beyer Speed Figure is the best in the field; she has the most early speed in the race; she is trained by a sharp, high-percentage trainer, Bret Calhoun; and she drew the coveted outside post in this field of nine. She went wickedly fast in her career debut, going 21 2/5 second the first quarter mile and 44 2/5 for the half; she broke from the inside that day, and needed to use her speed to clear a big field (she beat 13 other fillies in that one). We do not think she will need to go quite so fast today, and that is bad news for the rest of the field: when horses with high natural speed can run comfortably either on the lead or just off it, they usually run as well and as fast as they are capable of running. We think she wins this race comfortably, so we will bet Lady Shaman to win at 2-1, and we will do so enthusiastically and aggressively. We will also make a smaller bet on her in the Daily Double that comprises Races 5 and 6 (see below for Race 6 analysis). The bets: Sam Houston, Race 5, $60 to win on 9-Lady Shaman; $20 Double, 9 (Lady Shaman) with 6 (Fluminense).
Sam Houston, Race 6, 3:54 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, 4 & Up
This is a tough non-winners-of-three allowance race that drew a field of eleven. It looks to us like it will have a pace meltdown, as there are a few speed types, plus a few horses who have been running on dirt, and this latter group, being used to the faster early fractions of dirt races, usually forces a quicker early pace. We are looking for a horse who can come from off the pace and make a strong late move.
That horse is 6-Fluminense, a 4-year-old trained by Steve Asumssen. He competed primarily on dirt in his 3-year-old season, including starts in the West Virginia and Iowa Derbies, but he has run, and run well, on turf before. His connections have always thought he had quite a bit of ability, as five of his nine career starts have been in stakes races, including a Grade 1, so we think he will like this field, as the other runners in here are nowhere near as tough as he has been facing. This looks to us to be a case when the horse with the most natural ability also has the running style that the shape of the race will favor the most -- the fast early pace will favor his stretch-running style -- and when that happens, the only thing to do is go to the windows. We will bet him to win at 9/2. The bet: Sam Houston, Race 6, $40 to win on 6-Fluminense.
Sam Houston, Race 8, 4:54 pm ET
$25,000 Claiming, 6 1/2 furlongs, Dirt, 4 & Up
Sam Houston, Race 9, 5:22 pm ET
$10,000 Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up
We've put these races together because we are going to use them to try to leverage two opinions: the first is that in Race 8, 5-I'mabarknrat looks like a standout, like the overwhelmingly likeliest winner. At 6/5, on the morning line, however, and post-time odds that are likely even shorter, we see little value in betting him in the win pool.
Unlike the 8th, which seems pretty straightforward from a handicapping standpoint, the 9th is wide open: just about any one of the 12 older claiming females going a mile on the sod could win. Who gets the best trip could very likely be the difference, and that is difficult to predict in advance. A winner at boxcar odds would not be a surprise at all.
We have a clear pick in Race 8, and what looks a skull buster in the 9th, so we will combine these two opinions, via the Double that comprises the two races, and try to turn this handicapping straw into pari-mutuel gold. We will play I'mabarknrat with all the runners in the 9th and hope for chaos in the latter race. That's 12 different combinations; we will play it at the $2 level, for a total wager of $24. The bet: Sam Houston, Race 8, $2 Double, 5 (I'mabarknrat) with ALL.
That's all for today. As always, good luck at the windows.