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Today’s race is an optional claimer at Aqueduct for NY breds going six furlongs for four-year olds and up which have never won $13K twice other than maiden claiming or starter or which have never won three races or optional claiming price of $40K.
This is the third race and is slated to go off at 2:20 est. The weather should be sunny, warm, gorgeous and 53°.
Using Equibase speed and class figures for this, it has uncovered #2 Awillaway (6/1) and #5 Puffery (1/1) as best last. Awillaway has the best last two figures. #1 Prairie Fire (4/1) gets best class and Puffery gets best speed.
I’m not going to bet Puffery today and certainly not at 1/1. Horses create habits and losing can be as big of a habit as winning. When I see a horse with 11:2-3-3 at the track, went 9:0-1-3 last year and 2:0-2-0 this year, and hasn’t won since December of 2018, it signals losing habits and a certain play against.
Awillaway switched barns to Robert Klesaris last out, tracked the pace in a $64K allowance, and smoked the stretch in :07.07, faster than Puffery (:07.50) against a heavily speed bias. He just had a recent freshening and will look to make a similar trip today. Prairie Fire comes out of the cooling off barn of Linda Rice and was beaten last out by Prairie Fire, who both in turn lost to Hay Field. Hay Field ran its last on February 15th and dropped Equibase figures from 98 to 91. #3 Sadie Lady (3/1) switched barns to Rob Atras and summarily dispensed with a $35K claiming crowd, winning going away and Atras is a subpar 10% when moving his horses up in class. #4 OK Honey (20/1) is the only horse in for a tag and I tend to shy away from horses in for the claim in optional races. #6 Sunshine Gal (6/1) has lost by twenty-five lengths in total in its last two and has gone off form.
With Awillaway getting a positive jockey change to red hot Eric Cancel, I will look for him to stay near, or on, the pace and romp again in the stretch.
Understanding SmartCap
We use Equibase for all information
· The graph on the right is the horse's last numbers
· The graph on the left is its overall figures.
· Bold Yellow means best; muted means second best and gray is worth mentioning
· The bottom number is the class rating; the top its speed