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Nailed a winner yesterday with Cowboy Bling at Sam Houston. Let’s see what today brings.
We’re going south to Hallandale Beach, Florida to the 9th at Gulfstream Park. This is a six furlong optional claimer for four year old boys that have never won $10K once, other than maiden, claiming or starter OR state bred allowance OR non-winners of two.
Running the Equibase numbers thru SmartCap, we have the following results:
#1 Soldado (8/5) best last and best last two, although his last was in April of 2019
#5 The Gipper (5/1) best last
#6 And Seek (10/1) best overall class
#7 Be Gone Daddy (8/1) best overall speed
#1 – On the bench for the past nine months and is there anyone better than Todd Pletcher bringing back horses off a long layoff? 2nd best at $$ per race @ $15,320
#2 – Joe Di Baggio (10/1) trainer 9% off last win and 7% in allowance races. Toss
#3 – Travelling Midas (12/1) hasn’t raced since 2018, so/so works and trainer 0% with this long of a layoff. Toss
#4 – Allurstro (7/2) trainer Teresa Pompay and Paco Lopez hitting 60% with five wins. She is 4% with last time winners. Toss.
#5 - has been racing on turf of late and his trainer, Jorge Navarro, is 25% bringing horses from turf to dirt. Navarro is also 24% when coupled with Irad Ortiz Jr. and 41% when moving down in class. Solid numbers.
#6 - best money in per time out at $16,183 and with best class, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Dale Romans pull off the win.
#7 – trainer Monica McGoey 0% in allowance races and 0% with jockey Fanny Olsson. Nyet. Nada. Nil. Nope.
#8 – Goldenlion (15/1) trainer Amador Sanchez 36% off 2-6 months, 25% turf to dirt and 21% in class down. Four bullet works in a row and he’ll be the speed. Include in exotics.
How I’ll bet –
Exacta Box 8-1-5
Trifecta 8-1-5-6 in some form.
1 to win and place.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.