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Gorgeous 43 degree winter day at Aqueduct today. If this weather was where I live, people would be playing golf. Today's race is the 6th, a one mile, $70K allowance for girls non-winners of….
Quick note – SmartCap has #3 Private Beach (8/1) as best class and close to best speed. If she wins or places, you may want to put #3 Nonsensical in the 7th race, in your exotics – she finished third in her last and is moving up in class and can potentially get a check.
Today, I am going to bet this race in this manner: #3 Private Beach (8/1) $25/w $50/p – is the only runner in this to have consistently raced at this level. In her last after a five-month layoff, she showed solid jump in that start and given this second start in less than thirty days, she will get an easier go of it.
$2 Exacta Box #1 Team Win (6/1) trainer Todd Pletcher 30% with horses off two to six months, 25% in turf to dirt and has SmartCap's best last. #7 Trial and Error (6/5) just off a score breaking her maiden on her fourth try. Trainer Chad Brown having another all-star campaign clipping along at 28% winners.
For my $4 trifecta bet, add #4 Jennemily (10/1) first off the claim for Steve Asmussen (20%). Trifecta: 3-1/3-1-4/7, 3-1/7/3-1-4,7/3-1/3-1-4
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.