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For Sunday, Jan. 5, we are heading to beautiful, sunny New Mexico to Sunland Park, way south near El Paso, Texas. The weather should be a balmy 62 degrees at post time. Today’s race is the $100K Four Rivers John Deere Stakes for New Mexico bred 3yo going six furlongs. You have to love the name of SmartCap’s favorite - #9 Cerveza (4/1). “dos cervezas por favor.” When traveling to a Spanish speaking country, that and “donde esta el bano” is all the Spanish you need to know.
Of the eleven runners in this, trainer Todd Fincher (38%) has four entrants, Cliff Lambert (8%) has two and Casey Lambert (21%) has one…hmmmm.
Equibase gives this race a class rating of 73 and these are the horses whom have hit, or neared that number:
#2 – Jim Edd Who (12/1) 72 last out on 12/18
#4 – Shame On Powers (12/1) 70 on 10/19, 71 on 9/2 and 77 on 6/22
#6 – On A Warpath (7/2) 80 on 10/27
#7 – Franchise Tagged (6/1) 73 last out on 12/18
#8 – West Dawn (10/1) 73 last out on 12/18 - dead heat with #7
#9 – Cerveza (4/1) 72 on 10/27, 71 on 9/2, 73 on 8/10
#3 Ancient Land (5/2) is going to take the money in this and I do not believe he’ll win. He has yet to near the class rating and whereas he did win his last versus Cerveza, his pp’s suggest that a sprint is not his strength.
I do believe he’ll be the pacesetter with Franchised Tagged, #1 – Charlie Comanch (20/1) and #11- Road To Heat (12/1). Cerveza and On A Warpath will lay off the pace and move on the turn and duel in the stretch. Given what I have seen from #9 - Cerveza, he will dig in and not let On A Warpath pass. He is very game and coming into form.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.