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We have three more days left in handicapping until after Christmas and today it’s off to Parx for the 8th race. This is a $50K Allowance Optional Claimer for 3-year-olds and up. They’ll run a mile and seventy yards today. The weather will be overcast and 37 degrees at post time.
Using Equibase speed and class figures in conjunction with SmartCap, you can see that trainer James Lawrence, along with owner Matthew Schera, have a strong entry of #1 Isotherm (8/5), and #1a Vorticity (8/5). There is also the #3 Wait For It (2/1), showing up with solid last numbers as well as overall class and speed. We then have the #6 Small Bear (8/1) with competitive speed and class numbers.
I will exclude the #1 because of his past effort at Santa Anita, a course with a similar, heavy racing strip and he fared poorly there. 1a has never raced at Parx and never worked out, so I view him as a maybe/not likely. #3 has an excellent last rating and is 27% winner at Parx for $14.7K per time out, second best to #6 Small Bear (10/1) who is 2:1-1-0 for $50.6K. The second leading jockey, Mychal Sanchez, returns to #3 where he has had much success aboard.
However, my choice is #6 Small Bear (10/1). This gray gelding, in his last five races, has run in the mud or slop. He is second off a layoff and jockey Emmanuel Esquivel knows him well. There will be enough speed in this race and it’ll be interesting to see if the jockey has the patience to stay the course and strike at the right moment.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.