For Wednesday the 18th, Happy Birthday, Big Gina!
Todays’ race is the 7th at Fair Grounds, a one and 1/16th mile event and it’s an Allowance Optional Claimer for three-year olds and up. The claiming price is $40K and the purse is $47K.
Reviewing the Equibase numbers thru SmartCap, the #5 Warrior’s Charge (6/5) is head and shoulders above the rest. However, I am not going to bet this horse for these reasons:
a) His last race was The Preakness.
b) His world-class trainer Brad Cox is just 15% off this long of a layoff.
c) He is a need-the-lead type and as you can see from the above charts, only 17% wire the field this past week and 23% for the meet. Fair Grounds is historically a closers track.
d) I believe he’ll take the lead and then fade down the stretch as he’ll tire from not being 100% in shape
I’m going with the #3 Gun It (5/2). He’s a $300K out of Tapit and Miss Besilu (Medaglia D’oro) that is trained by Steve Asmussen who is third in the trainer standings. He’s second off a layoff and just crushed a $97K Allowance field by five lengths. That was a one mile event, so he's rounding into shape and going the extra distance will be welcomed.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.