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On Tuesday, December 17th, we are going to look at the 1st race at Mahoning Valley.
This is a six furlong allowance race for Buckeye bred fillies and mares three years old and up whom have never won three races.
Trying something new today. You’ll see in our SmartCap results, a highlighted number from the horse who has the best last two races. In this race, the #3 – Mobil Lady (3/1) is showing, for her last 2, an 88.5 over 75. As you look to the right, she has the best last numbers (81/105) and then to the left, she has best overall class and speed (76.3/93.1). There are no digression/progression calculations as the algorithm is factored and the “last 2” is merely an average SmartCap score of its last two races.
Does this mean you should peremptorily bet on this filly? No. Dig a little deeper. The odds on morning line selection is the #6 Status Symbol (1/1). This will be her fourth race in less than a month and has finished second in the slop at this distance, a fading second at a mile and won three back versus similar. The next logical choice is the #1 Hottie Stilletto (5/1), who just scored a victory in a $31K allowance against state breds. Her trainer, William Helmbrecht, is 20% when winning last and 29% in allowance races. These two seem like the only logical choices to be contenders with Mobil Lady.
Using Equibase figures while comparing these three in their past two races, you’ll find an interesting look:
#1 66/61 - 45/62 – 48/66
#3 67/88 - 59/89 – 70/69
#6 78/69 – 72/73 – 58/62
Given Equibase rating this race as a 70, what do these numbers tell us?
#1 is stepping up in class by 8 points
#3 is stepping down by 18 points
#6 is racing against similar
Digging deeper in the pp’s, you’ll find –
#1 two times raced at MVR, going 2:1-0-1 for $21,910 or $10,955 per time out and itm
#3 3:1-0-1 at the track for $58.5K or $19.5K per time out and $29,250 per itm
#6 3:1-2-0 at MVR for $31,860 getting $10,620 per outing and $10,620 per itm
So, with all of this, who to bet on? I am going with the #3 for her drop in class and money per race at MVR.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.