After a quiet week, the racing starts to ramp up today, in advance of a pretty good Saturday slate of races tomorrow. The headliner will be Aqueduct, which has a terrific Saturday card highlighted by a trio of graded stakes, with the feature the Grade 1 Cigar Mile, which will see the return of Maximum Security, the almost-winner of this year's Kentucky Derby. To get us ready for that, to get a feel for how the track is playing, we'll play a couple of today's races at the Big A. We expect fast dirt and firm turf; let's go.
Aqueduct, Race 2, 12:20 pm ET
Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 3 & Up
This is a very good race, a first-level allowance for turf runners. It's a big field, with 11 runners, and we like that, because it should give us a good price on a horse we like quite a bit, 9-Uhtred. This 3-year-old son of English Channel is trained by Christophe Clement, a top turf trainer, and has a race pattern we like to see, especially from 3-year-olds: he's improved slowly but steadily since his career debut at Gulfstream Park in March. He finished fourth in his last, a race at Aqueduct at the same level as today's, but we think that race was better than it looks in the past performances: the grass course that day was very speed-favoring, and he tried to catch horses up front who were just not slowing down. On what we expect will be a fairer track today, we are expecting a big effort from him, and we also think the cutback in distance -- he goes from 1 3/8 miles to a mile and a sixteenth -- will help him. He's 2-for-3 lifetime at this distance, and we think he will be plenty tough in here. We will bet him to win at 9/2. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 2, $30 to win on 9-Uhtred.
Aqueduct, Race 7, 2:46 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
A field of ten drew into this race, an allowance for state-bred females. It's a tricky race to handicap, as most of the horses have inconsistent form, the occasional good race interspersed with a lot of bad races. And indication of the quality of the field is that the third choice on the morning line, 9/2 5-Eye's on You, ships in from Finger Lakes, which is strictly minor leagues.
When we find a race confusing to handicap, we rely on what we know, and in dirt sprints, we know that speed rules. That's why our pick is 1-Overtime Olivia, who is by far the fastest horse in the race, and breaking from the rail will have to use that speed to avoid traffic trouble. In a suspect field, we are going to wager that this 5-year-old mare can find the front end, get brave, and stay there all the way home. Since she's 15-1, we will bet her to win and to place. The bets: Aqueduct, Race 7, $25 to win and $15 to place on 1-Overtime Olivia.
Aqueduct, Race 9, 3:45 pm ET
$100,000 Central Park Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 2-Year-Olds
The field of the Central Park came up strong, if a bit short: seven colts will go to the post for the 8 1/2 furlongs on the Aqueduct inner turf course. There are some regally bred horses in here, with top sires Uncle Mo, Speightstown, Medaglia d'Oro, and City Zip all represented. But it's a colt sired by another heavyweight stallion, American Pharoah, that we like: it's 5/2 second choice 3-Homeland, who's trained by Bill Mott. American Pharoah is off to the most sensational start of a stud career that we can remember: he's already produced more winners than you can shake a rolled-up program at, and he's been especially good at siring precocious 2-year-olds. The number of good runners he's sired is even more impressive considering this is just the third year his offspring have been running on the track.
Homeland won his debut, a maiden race at this distance, quite smartly, and while he will have to improve off that effort to win here, we think that he will do so, probably quite comfortably. He has a very good combination of high stalking speed and a strong finishing kick, and while this is always a good combination on grass, we think it's even better in here, as the other top betting choices, including 8/5 favorite 10-Pixelate, have significantly inferior late-pace figures. We think Homeland is a strong play here, so we'll loosen the rubber band around the bankroll a bit and bet him to win. We don't think he'll be 5/2 at post time -- we think he might even be the favorite -- but we will bet him anyway. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 9, $50 to win on 3-Homeland.
That's all for today. We will be back tomorrow for a look at the national stakes action, including the Cigar Mile in New York, a pair of historically significant juvenile stakes races at Los Alamitos, and a look at the mammoth International Racing Festival at Sha Tin in Hong Kong, which is run Sunday over there, but will be a late night/early morning affair here. We are looking forward to all of it, so until then, as always, good luck at the windows.
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