Today we’re handicapping two stakes races from Mahoning Valley in Youngstown, Ohio.
The weather is in the forties and threatening rain late.
Race 2 is the $75K Glacial Princess Stakes for Ohio bred two-year-old fillies going six furlongs.
For the third time in as many races, #2 Edge Of Night (6/5) faces off against #4 Cristalinda (8/5) and after running the Equibase class and speed numbers through SmartCap, they seemingly are head and shoulders above the rest. However, these are two-year-olds and prone to anything, so it’s best to take a deeper dive.
#1 Ting Tang (6/1) fourteen days ago broke her maiden in a six furlong, state bred, open company sprint, #2 Edge Of Night (6/5) second in the betting for the $150K Galbreath Stakes last out and didn’t fire. Prior to that, she has earned $94K for her $2K investment going 5:2- 3-0. Form questionable from extraneous campaign.
#4 Cristalinda (8/5) knocked on the door two back just missing by a neck. Entered the Galbreath, jumped out of the gate well and got buzzsawed. Still a maiden.
#5 Heaven Sent Angel (4/1) just broke her maiden in a $30K claimer. Move up in class premature.
I’m siding with Cristalinda in this. Her last out was not as bad as it looks since leading jockey Gerardo Corrales didn’t push her when the race got away from them. You’re going to see Corrales stay near the 1-2-5 thru the ½ mile and then take off with abandon to win going away.
The 7th race at Mahoning Valley is the $75K Ruff/Kirchberg Memorial Handicap.
This is for Ohio accredited three-year-olds and up going one mile.
I’m going straight along the lines of SmartCap and take the #4 – Verissimo (5/2) to win and place. I’m also going to exacta box the three with the best last, #1 Direct Deposit (10/1), #6 Mobil Solution (7/2) along with the aforementioned 4.
In addition to those three, I am going to trifecta box adding the #5 – Mobile At Last (20/1) under this premise – he has run in eleven allowance or stakes races previous, drops in for a very low tag, was claimed by a top trainer, from a top trainer and is now entered into this race. It’s a total hunch play and we’ll see.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com