Today we’re looking at a $62.5K Allowance Optional Claimer in the 9th race at Churchill Downs. It’s for fillies and mares going seven furlongs.
Running the Equibase numbers thru SmartCap, we get a sweep with the 1A – Irish Mischief (1/1) getting best last, best overall speed and best overall class.
Equibase gives this race a class rating of 98 and there are only two runners in this who have reached or bested that number
1A - 97, 98, 97 & 99 its last four
7 – 85, 101, 91, 92
As SmartCap surfaced, the 7 – Summer Delivery (4/1), along with Irish Mischief, have stuck out as the ones to beat. If the entry holds up, you will see the 1, 3, 9 and 7 take the lead with the 1A pressing the pace.
At 1234 feet, Churchill has one of the longest stretch runs in the country – Los Al being the longest at 1380. Jockeys Florent Geroux, aboard 1A and Corey Lanerie, aboard 7, being mindful of this will not fry their mount on the front end and save ground until necessary. In mid-stretch, Irish Mischief’s class will kick in and pull away late.
Although I’m not crazy betting an even money bet, this horse looks too tough for this field.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
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