Today we’re handicapping the 3rd race at Parx. It should be a gorgeous day with plenty of sun and 53˚at post.
This is a seven furlong, $16K Waiver Claiming event for PA breds that are three years old and up, which are non-winners of two races.
Equibase gave this race a 76 class level rating and there are only four horses here that have reached or exceeded that:
#2 The Carlbrook Kid (5/1) scored an 84 two back in a Starter Allowance which is the highest of the entire group.
#3 Untangled Truth (3/2) hit a 79 two back against Waiver Maiden Claimers and summarily got his boo-tie handed to him when moving up
#5 Partner’s Power (20/1) won his last, and only, after 24 tries. Scored a 76 in early September.
#8 Motowncharlybrown (8/1) scored an 82 and 77 this spring. Has been on the bench since July and been fed a steady diet of workouts
SmartCap has identified #2 The Carlbrook Kid as best last, best overall speed and second best overall class and he is the choice here. Having raced just ten days ago, this move down in class signifies his connections desire to get a win. Look for jockey Edwin Rivera to stay near the lead going into the turn and make his move in the stretch.
I am also going to bet an Exacta box with 2-3-8.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com