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Mahoning Valley, October 28th
Youngstown, OH.
Beautiful Day – sunny and 62̊ at post time
12:45 est Race 1
$4K Claimers, NW since, 3yo+ going 1 mile & 70 yards
#6 – Comancheria (10/1) jockey Christian Pilares off to a solid start getting a win and two other itm finishes, gets this mount today. Ships in from Presque Isle where he ran well in his last, giving second best last figures of this race. I passed on the best because he has been beaten a collective amount of 65 races his last three. Yes, class drops matter; however, so does being competitive. This stalker type can use the outside post to his advantage by tucking in, saving ground and getting near on the far turn.
Bets - $25/w $50/p #6
1:12best Race 2
$12.5K Statie Claimers 3yo+ going 5.5 furlongs
#5 Play Ball (8/5). It’ll be highly unlikely that you’ll get 8/5 odds on this guy when the gate opens. He has won three in a row and four of his last five. What was more startling while studying the PP’s was the trainers win percentage – 86%. He doesn’t have many horses and what he does have, he wins frequently with them. Leading rider Gerardo Corrales up. The one to beat.
Bets $100/w $200/p
2:36 est Race 5
$23.5K Allowance for NW2 fillies and mares going 1 mile, 70 yards.
#2 Dancensing (7/2). If you are unfamiliar with Equibase and only use DRF with one Beyer figure, this type of pp tends to be more exacting. If you can get an Equibase sample of this race, in the top left hand corner, you’ll notice a CR 80. This is the projected class rating that Equibase has set for this race. What I look for straight away are the horses that have run at, near or above that number and make a mental note of it. Now, look at my choice of the #2 and you will see the bold numbers which I have highlighted to wit: an 80 and an 83. Directly to the left of that number is the class it raced against, 83 & 88 respectively. Now, moving to the #3, City Diva, I highlighted the races she has been in and you’ll see her numbers are higher, initially signifying tougher competition.
However, to the left of this numbers, in highlights, you’ll see where she has raced those higher rated races on turf. Turf races normally get a higher rating, so you’ll have to make considerations for that class because of this anomaly. So, you will see that the choice in this field is the only entrant to have raced at or above par on dirt, is my pick
In some cases, spotting this is easy and simple to use as a basis of comparison.
Bets $100/w $200/p #2
Others –
2:08est Race 5 - #6 Tiz A Superslew
3:04est Race 6 - #2 Hey Adrian
3:33est Race 7 - #5 Greg