We're back to take on the Wednesday races from Royal Ascot. We did okay Tuesday. We didn't get blanked, but we want to do better, especially on one of the biggest stages in the world for the greatest sport in the world.
There are four Group races; we'll try to hit 'em all. Here's the lineup (all times are Eastern; all races are on turf):
Race 1 (9:30 a.m.): Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes, 2-year-old fillies, 5 furlongs.
Race 2 (10:05 a.m.): Group 2 Queen's Vase, 3-year-olds, 1 3/4 miles.
Race 3 (10:40 a.m.): Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes, 4 & up, 1 1/4 miles.
Race 4 (11:20 a.m.): Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes, fillies & mares 4 & up, 1 mile.
We'll take these races in succession.
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Upon a cursory glance at the entries/past performances for the Queen Mary Stakes, two things jump out. One is the size of the field − 26 horses! − and the other is the presence of American trainer Wesley Ward. Ward has become something of a guru with juvenile horses, and a few years ago, he started bringing American-trained horses to Ascot. The European racing cognoscenti laughed at him, dismissed him as a provincial interloper − until he started winning races, usually at big prices. Now Ward is to Royal Ascot juvenile races what Bob Baffert is to American Triple Crown races . . . He doesn't win them all, but any analysis of the races has to go through him.
So it is with the Queen Mary. Ward has a pair of entries here: 3-Anna's Fast and 16-Kimari. Both are coming off good maiden wins in the U.S. − they both won at first asking at the Keeneland spring meeting − but neither has raced on the turf, and neither has the breeding to make one juiced at taking them at a short price running on the grass for the first time. We will pass on both.
We like 13-Ickworth. This girl has won both of her starts, both at this 5 furlong distance, one on a synthetic surface, and one on yielding turf that should be a pretty close approximation to what she will be asked to handle here. In her last start, a listed race at the Curragh in Ireland, she looked positively dominant, showing high speed − always important in a race this short − and a powerful closing kick. We like her very much, and we will bet her to win enthusiastically at a very square price of 7-1.
Ascot Race 1
$40 W on 13-Ickworth
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The Queen's Vase looks straightforward to us. We can't go against the favorite, 12-Western Australia, who's 2-1 on the morning line. He's in top form, and was born to run this marathon 1 3/4 distance. We will bet him to win; the size of our wager will be tempered only by his price, which we expect to be short.
Ascot Race 2
$50 W on 12-Western Australia
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The featured race Wednesday at Ascot is the 3rd, the Prince of Wales's Stakes, a classic, 10-furlong grass race for older horses. Eight are entered, including the 3-2 morning-line favorite 7-Magical, who comes from the powerhouse Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien barn.
Magical is a nice horse, but we love 8-Sea of Class here. She's a 4-year-old filly who was last seen finishing second by a nose in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamps in Paris, which is merely the biggest race of the year in Europe. Running against the boys is something she'd handled before − she did it in the Arc − and we think she will also thrive coming off a layoff. She is our favorite horse in training, and she is our best bet of the day, and maybe the month. She is something very special, and we will bet her to win, and we will do so with both fists. Sit back, if you're able, and prepare to watch something special.
Ascot Race 3
$100 W on 8-Sea of Class
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In the Duke of Cambridge, we like favored 13-Rawdaa. She's lost her last two, but they were at surfaces and distances − 10 furlongs on grass and a mile on synthetic − that she are not her best. The conditions here − a mile on grass with some cut to it − we expect a top effort from her, and that will be enough to win this. We'll bet her to win at 3-1.
Ascot Race 4
$35 W on 13-Rawdaa
That's it for today. Enjoy the racing, and, as always, good luck at the windows.