What a difference a day makes. After having blissful, balmy and breezy weather all weekend, today brings the rain to the East Coast venues. And rain changes everything. The first thing it changes are the field sizes, especially for the turf races coming off onto a sealed main track. Shorter fields mean fewer betting options and shorter prices, a downside for both the house and the experienced punter. So, today marks an opportunity to focus on one of Mick’s favorite angles, the “fake” MTO. Stay tuned since track conditions may change even more with additional rain.
Weather: Rainy and sticky with frequent downpours. In total, a real challenge for the track superintendents.
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Delaware Race 3 (2:09 p.m. ET)
An off the turf affair with amateur riders and lots of jump horses! What fun! Virtually no one in the field (that stayed in as of 10 a.m.) has recent off track form and most of the riders list occupations other than jockey on their Fegentri bios. So as you read from Mick regularly, this is a rider race. But which rider? 7-Shoreline gets the most experienced (or so it appears based on limited date) rider in regular jump and exercise rider Bethany Baumgardner. Combine that with the most back class of any horse in the race and a good off track pedigree, this one may be a short priced favorite come post time. 1-Benevolentdictator gets another regular on the jump circuit as the pilot in Skyler McKenna. The pedigree here is solid and the work on dirt is promising. 8-Not Necessarily has the best chance of the flat trackers coming from the barn of top conditioner, Gerald Bennett. By the way, there are no obvious fake MTOs in this group.
Delaware Race 3
$10 W/P/S 7-Shoreline
$2 Exacta box 1,7
$1 Trifecta box 1,7,8
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Delaware Race 5 (3:03)
6-Havenow is today’s version of a fake MTO. Yes, this one might have run on the turf but by the race coming off, she goes from 8-1 on the Morning Line to a solid second choice behind the entry. The last time jockey Sheldon Russell rode this one, she won by 14 lengths in a maiden breaker which qualified her for this condition. Solid off track pedigree and an okay price given the short field. The entry 1/1A will get over bet here and that is deserved. The play is against and for those readers with exchange betting, a bet against would be the wager.
Delaware Race 5
$10 W/P 6-Havenow
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Parx Race 7 (3:37)
Warning: Mick is flying without a net here. Parx has not released the scratches for this off the turf race yet so the assumption is that everyone is running. That will not be the case . . . Mick promises. So the focus is on the horses that want the slop. The leading candidate for that role is the MTO, 12-Irish Colonel. He is legit on the off going although the last few attempts have been less than stellar. 9-Champagne Chuck looks solid on every surface but the slop may move him up. But the horse that appears to be helped the most by the change is 8-Seat of Honor, because it’s good to be a son of Tapit and it’s even better to be one on an off track. And he gets the fake MTO mantle, too!
Parx Race 7
$10 W/P/S 8-Seat of Honor
$2 Exacta box 8,9
$1 Trifecta 8,9,12
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MICK’S QUICKIES:
Delaware Race 6 (3:30): 4-Important has never won on the off going but has come close. Top rider and barn should prevail over 1-Miss Gray who needs to avoid getting buried at the rail.
Parx Race 3 (1:49): 3-Storm Advisory deserves to be short-priced here. It’s stunning that this one still has the condition.