We're back for another week, and this is the week before the week, as it were: This is the week before Kentucky Derby week. We are deep in study for the Derby, locked away in our handicapping dungeon, crunching numbers and monitoring morning workouts, but we're always happy to come up for air, especially if it involves some parimutuel excitement. We have found a few plays today at Indiana Grand and Turf Paradise. There will be fine weather in both places, so we're handicapping for fast and firm. Let's go.
At Indiana Grand, Race 4 is a baby race, a 4 1/2 furlong Maiden Special Weight dash on the dirt for 2-year-olds. Post time is 3:39 pm Eastern. Most of the wagering, we think, will be focused on 5-Thirsty Junior and 6-Banana Pepper, who are both coming out of maiden races at Keeneland. Thirsty Junior especially will have a lot of support, so much that he has been installed as the 4/5 morning line favorite.
But we like another horse in here, 3-Trigz. This boy is trained by Jim Chapman, formerly based exclusively in Southern California, but who now splits his time between the Left Coast and Kentucky. Here he makes an invasion to Indiana Grand, and it looks like he has a runner: Trigz has had some good morning drills. Chapman is a very, very skilled horseman who can get horses to fire first out, and we will pick Trigz to win at 6-1. We will also bet him in a double with the favorite in the 5th race, 3-Stormy Lives, who looks like he is going to have to fall down to lose. The bets: Indiana Grand, Race 5, $15 to win on 3-Trigz; $10 double, 3 (Trigz) with 3 (Stormy Lives).
Race 6 at Indiana Grand (post time: 4:35 pm) is another juvenile race, another Maiden Special at 4 1/2 on the dirt, but this one is for the fillies. We like another Chapman entrant here, and it's 8-La Rosa Drive. This girl is a first-time starter, but her work pattern suggests she will be ready to run at first asking. We will bet her to win at 4-1. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 6, $20 to win on 8-La Rosa Drive.
The 7th at Indiana Grand (post time: 5:03 pm Eastern) is an allowance/optional claimer for horses 3 and up at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt. There's a fairly typical lineup of grizzled veterans here, but there's also a horse making his 3-year-old debut in here, and that is 5-Ace of Aces. It's normally very difficult for a 3-year-old to beat his elders this time of year, and we normally toss 3-year-olds in this spot. In terms of maturity, it's like a 14-year-old running against men, and the juveniles usually get the short end of the stick in this deal (this is in the spring; by the fall, it's a completely different story).
But we think that Ace of Aces will be an exception to this rule. He had a very good juvenile campaign, winning three of his four starts, and he is trained by the very skilled Bernard Flint. He gets a break in the weights, and we think he wins this. And because he's a boy among men, we're getting 4-1, which we think is a very square price. We will bet him to win. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 7, $20 to win on 5-Ace of Aces.
Over at Turf Paraside, there's an 8-race Tuesday card. We've settled on the 5th, as it's a wide-open betting race, and we have a hankering for some turf racing: it's a $8,500 claimer at 7 1/2 furlongs on the sod, for fillies and mares 3 and up. It goes to the post at 6:17 pm Eastern.
We like 7-Runawayfromrosenot. This 4-year-old daughter seems to have found her niche on the grass, and a repeat of her last race would win this for her. She's got a good combination of tactical speed and closing kick, which is a requirement on the grass at Turf Paradise. We will bet her to win at 7-2. The bet: Turf Paradise, Race 5, $20 to win on 7-Runawayfromrosenot.
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.