Fast and the winds have subsided. The last few days have been all about handicapping to track bias with the rains and winds. Today should get back to seeing the track play more fair across the entire fields and that usually means a return to more chalk. Therefore, today’s entire focus is on bringing in one or two longshots so you get some return on your investment.
Picks for April 19, 2019:
It’s gonna rain. Where and how much is very much in question. If it holds off until the afternoon, fast and firm should be the norm but you will need to pay attention to changing track conditions.
Aqueduct Race 1
Two year old fillies for the first time this season in NY. The 2 year old races at Keeneland were not competitive and this one looks to be a continuation of the theme with 4-Maven from 2 year old meister Wesley Ward looking to be a stand out based on works. It doesn’t hurt that she is a daughter of American Pharoah (a word that my spell checker still hates….) so we will see how precocious his get are soon. Nobody else looks close here so it should be all about 4-Maven.
$10 W/P/S 4-Maven
Aqueduct Race 3 Memories of Silver Stakes
Three year old fillies on the turf and Chad Brown has multiple, viable entrants. Surprised? You shouldn’t be. 2-Blowout and 3-La Feve are both legitimate contenders here but are bred for more distance. They will be running late so who can get a jump on this field? 1-Her Royal Highness looks the part. She was too far back last out against several of these but made up ground and should benefit from making her second start on turf. In addition, trainer Graham Motion has been all or nothing shipping into Aqueduct this year. He either wins or misses the board.
$10 W/P/S 1-Her Royal Highness
$2 Exacta box 1,2,3
$1 Trifecta box 1,2,3
Laurel Race 1
More 2 year old racing but this time without Wesley Ward. Maryland has its share of trainers known for getting them ready early and this race is full of them. The biggest difference here is that this race is full of horses that are quick but may not be fast and certainly are not being seen as long term progressive. So picking the horse in the right place on the right day comes down to works and connections. 7-Determined Chance is bred top and bottom to be fast, comes from a high percentage barn, and gets Sheldon Russell in the irons. These are all positives. The works have not been eye popping but they fit here.
$10 W/P/S 7-Determined Chance
Mick’s Quick Picks
Aqueduct Race 2: This race is all about beating the chalk, 4-Arewehavingfunyet. By post time, it may be all about picking the most logical show bets to beat the bridge jumpers. But first things first. Sorry folks, it’s not gonna happen, no one else even belongs in the race.
Laurel Race 5: 2-The Happy Giant looks to have benefitted from the lovely winter in South Carolina. Maybe he didn’t enjoy getting gelded but you should. This one will be completely overlooked in this field but the long turf race in the fall at Laurel was good and based on works alone, stamina should not be a problem.
Laurel Race 6: 3-Last Love will bounce but will it be enough to matter? If so, then 2-Toma is the only one of these capable of picking up the pieces. Use them both.