Entries for both the Florida Derby and the big Dubai World Cup card at Meydan Racecourse were drawn Wednesday, and both cards are going to keep us quite busy for the next 48 hours: the Derby card at Gulfstream is a 14-race leviathan, and while there aren't quite as many races in Dubai, the quality of the racing -- it's as good as it gets, anywhere in the world -- and the fact that horses are coming to Dubai from all corners of the earth is enough to give dedicated handicappers a real challenge. We love these cards.
But we also love "regular" cards, and we will happily take a break from Saturday's cards to look at the racing today. And the good news is that there are very playable cards today: we can use them to slake our parimeutuel thirst, and perhaps even to pad the bankroll a bit to attack the top-flight weekend action appropriately. We will focus primarily on the card at Gulfstream, but we'll throw in a couple of races at Oaklawn Park as well. The weather at both places is expected to be OK, so we're handicapping for fast and firm in South Florida, and fast in Arkansas. Let's go.
Race 5 Gulfstream (post time: 3:15 pm Eastern) is 5 furlong turf sprint, an allowance for older Florida-bred horses. There's a standout here, and it's the inside horse, 1-Macho Blue. This 4-year-old has racked up two consecutive wins, both on turf and both at the same distance as this race. Either of those would be good enough to win today. He makes his first start for a new trainer, Jose Gallegos, who claimed him for $30k last out, but we view the placement of the horse -- in an allowance race, where he cannot be claimed -- as a positive. We pick him to win at 9/5. The bet: Gulfstream Park Race 5, $20 to win on 1-Macho Blue.
The 8th at Gulfstream (post time: 4:46 pm) is a Maiden Special Weight race at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. It's for older females, and there are nine entered. The pick here is 7-Monhegan: This 4-year-old daughter of English Channel has been very patiently developed by trainer Michael Matz, and she has failed to break her maiden in five career starts, but she has been incrementally more competitive in each start, and we think the time is now. She showed a much improved finishing kick last out in a similar spot, running the final furlong a shade under 12 seconds, and we think she ends up on top here. We will bet her to win at 4-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park Race 8, $25 to win on 7-Monhegan.
Race 9 at Gulfstream (post time: 5:17 pm Eastern) is a first-level allowance at a mile on the turf for older females. Eight are entered. The strong pick here is 7-Go Rose. This German-bred 4-year-old filly is making her first North American start after a few starts at tracks in Germany. She hit the board in a Group 2 race at Dusseldorf, and that makes us think that she probably outclasses the other runners here, as these days, European turf runners are usually a cut above their American counterparts. Trainer Christophe Clement does not have the best stats with his first North American starters -- he's 1-for-20 in his last 20 cracks -- but we think this filly will an exception, especially since top rider Irad Ortiz is aboard. When you're getting 3-1 on what you think is the best horse in the race, you're supposed to bet, so we will. The bet: Gulfstream Park Race 9, $25 to win on 7-Go Rose.
The 10th at Gulfstream (post time: 5:48 pm Eastern) is a 6 furlong dirt sprint, an allowance for older females. We'll cut right to the chase: 5-Mybigitalianfriend is pretty close to the embodiment of handicapping perfection. She has won three races in a row; her Beyer Speed Figures in each have been superior to those earned by her rivals; she comes from the barn of ace trainer Jason Servis; and she will be ridden by a top rider (Irad Ortiz). We're not going to get a big price on her, but we don't care: we're taking her 9/5 price, and pounding her to win anyway. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $35 to win on 5-Mybigitalianfriend.
At Oaklawn, we'll take a quick look at two consecutive races, the 7th and 8th. They are both first-level allowance races for females: The 7th is at a mile and a sixteenth, for females 3 and up; the 8th is 6 furlongs, for females 4 and older. Like all races at Oaklawn, they are on dirt. They go off at 5:14 pm and 5:42 pm Eastern, respectively.
The pick in the 7th is 6-Devilite. This regally-bred 4-year-old filly (by Tapit, out of a Distorted Humor mare) was a dull 5th in a similar spot last month, but we think that the wet surface (the track was rated "good") was an excuse. Tomorrow, she will get the fast track she wants, and we think that means she wins the race. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 7, $15 to win on 6-Devilite.
In the 8th race, we like the outside horse, 10-Summer Storm. This 4-year-old filly is moving up in class after a pair of very good races, and we like betting improving horses on the come as they move up the ladder. The rest of the field is not overly impressive, as most of them have repeatedly failed to win at this level, and we think the far outside post is an ideal fit for Summer Storm's good tactical speed. She can stalk if horses to the inside go fast, and she can take the lead if they dawdle. We think she's a go at 3-1, and we will bet her to win. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 8, $20 to win on 10-Summer Storm.
That's all for today. We'll be back on Saturday with a look at the national stakes races, including the Florida Derby, and we'll also have a special Dubai World Cup edition, which should be posted sometime Friday, either late afternoon or early evening. Until then, good luck at the windows.