We've looked at the cards at Oaklawn Park and the Fair Grounds today. The weather at both is forecast to be superb, sunny and 70, which is not surprising, considering they are only about 450 miles apart. There's a good card at Gulfstream today, too, but we will pass on it, as the weather is iffy in South Florida: they were off the turf yesterday, and the forecast has a chance of rain this afternoon. But we have plenty to keep us busy in Louisiana and Arkansas.
We're going to start at the Fair Grounds, as Saturday is Louisiana Derby day, and to be ready for that big day, we want to have as firm a grasp on the conditions there as possible. The track yesterday was fair, with the main track giving perhaps a slight edge to speed. Four of the five dirt races were won in wire-to-wire fashion, and while this might make a handicapper scream, "TRACK BIAS!" there actually was not a dramatic bias yesterday, as most of the front-running winners were overwhelming favorites who just happened to have early speed. There's a big difference -- and it's one that serious handicappers need to grasp firmly -- between results dictated by the ability of the horses, and results dictated by the condition of the racing surface. We think that the results at the Fair Grounds yesterday were the former: it was a fair track with an edge to early speed, which is how most dirt tracks are most of the time anyway. Speed, as the old saying goes, is indeed the universal track bias.
So after that analysis of the dirt at the Fair Grounds, we're naturally going to start with a turf race: Race 6 (post time: 4:10 pm Eastern) is an allowance race at 7 1/2 furlongs for Louisiana-bred older females. Our pick is 2-Dixie Brees. This 7-year-old mare has hit her stride recently with a switch to grass; she hit the board in each of her last two races, both of which were on turf, and both of which were at this level and at a similar distance. There's enough speed in here to make her late kick effective, and we think that puts her in the winner's circle. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 6, $15 to win on 2-Dixie Brees.
The 9th race in New Orleans (post time: 5:46 pm Eastern) is a 5 1/2 furlong dirt sprint, an allowance for 3-year-olds. There is a strong play in here, and it's 4-Bertie's Galaxy, who is 3-1 on the morning line. This horse broke his maiden last out, at this distance and on this racing surface, and in that race, he earned a Beyer Speed Figure that is superior to the rest of the field. Moreover, he has high early speed; we expect him to be on or near the lead on a racing surface that is favoring speed. He comes from the very successful Ron Faucheux barn, and he gets the services of top rider Florent Geroux. All signs point to go here, so we will bet him to win. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 9, $30 to win on 4-Bertie's Galaxy.
We looked at the 10th race (post time: 6:18 pm Eastern), a $32,000 maiden claimer for 3-year-olds at a mile on the turf, and the race is a complete crapshoot. We have no idea who will win, so we are going to go back to Race 9, take Bertie's Galaxy, wheel him in the daily double, and hope for chaos in the 10th. The bet: Fair Grounds Race 9, $2 double, 3 with all. Assuming that all 11 runners in the 10th make it it to the starting gate, this double ticket will cost $22.
In the 11th at the Fair Grounds (post time: 6:50 pm Eastern), a $5,000 claiming, 6 furlong dirt sprint for older horses, we like the 7/2 morning line favorite, 6-Born Again George. This horse has been very consistent his last two races, and his speed figures mark him as a top contender. He also has some early speed, which should work on this track. We are going to bet him to win, but we're also going to use him in the Pick 3 that covers races 9-11. The bets: Fair Grounds, Race 9 $1 Pick 3, 3 (Bertie's Galaxy) with ALL with 6 (Born Again George), and Fair Grounds, Race 10, $10 to win on 6-Born Again George. The Pick 3 ticket will cost $11.
Over at Oaklawn, they kick off another week with a 9-race card. The 8th (post time: 5:42 pm Eastern) is an allowance, a 6-furlong sprint on the dirt for older horses. We like the inside horse, 1-Strolling. This 4-year-old gelding keeps getting better, and keeps moving up in class. He holds an edge in speed figures on the rest of the field, and tactical speed to go along with it. He's breaking from the rail, which we generally don't like, but in recent days, the rail has not been the worst place to be at Oaklawn, and we think he has enough ability to avoid a bad trip. We'll bet him to win. The bet: Oaklawn Park Race 8, $15 to win on 1-Strolling.
The 9th at Oaklawn (post time: 6:10 pm Eastern)is another sprint, this one at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt. 12 older females are entered to run for a $6,250 claiming tag. The pick here is 10-Curiousncuriouser, who is 3-1. This 5-year-old mare was last seen in the fall on the New York circuit; she was claimed for $32k out of a race at Aqueduct in November. Here she drops several rungs to the $6,50 claiming ranks, and makes her first start for a new trainer, Robertino Diodoro. Diodoro hits with 24% of his starters in the first off the claim, and that, coupled with her back class, makes us think she will be the winner today. The bet: Oaklawn Park Race 9, $20 to win on 10-Curiousncuriouser.
That's all for today. We will be back on Saturday for the Louisiana Derby, as well as the undercard at the Fair Grounds, and other national stakes racing. Until then, good luck at the windows.