Enough about track conditions even if today may be another changeable day right up to post time. Instead, let’s talk about connections. Both owners and breeders come from all parts of society from self made billionaires (Kevin Plank from Under Armour and Sagamore Farm) to old money (Coolmore’s Magnier family) to foreign sovereigns (Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin/Darley) to Owner/Trainers that rub every horse they have in their care, none of which cost more than the proverbial ham sandwich. Obviously, in a game where the adage, breed the best to the best and hope for the best, is true most of the time, it is nice to see small operations beat the big boys but it can be just as rewarding for the punter to stick with the big boys. As Mick called out in the 9th at Laurel yesterday, sometimes top connections have bad horses, or more accurately, horses off form and betting against them can be hugely profitable. In all, knowing what the connections are out to do (win races? Create broodmares? Get black type?) can give significant insight into how well intentioned horses are on that day.
Picks for February 24, 2019:
Mick proved yesterday that predicting track condition is never easy. Saturday evening is predicted to include significant rain so how much and how long will determine track condition since it should be clear and sunny by first post on Sunday. The guess is muddy early but improving quickly.
Aqueduct Race 4
$30K claimer for older boys at 8f. 6-Devine Dental is an interesting story. A year ago, this PA bred was running in NY for Jeremiah Englehart before being moved to John Servis’ barn at Parx. All he did for Servis was win two PA bred allowance races before being sent back to NY for a $25K claimer. Why load up the truck for a race that is available at Parx? The guess is that the horse was for sale and there is more money in NY no matter how busy the claim box at Parx may be. Michelle Nevin dropped the slip and this one has yet to return to the winner’s circle. On paper, today should be his time but the continued drop towards the claim level is a huge red flag. Instead look at 3-Incubator, taking a huge step up from a conditioned $14K claimer where he was haltered by Rudy Rodriguez, a 33% trainer off the claim. He should have the lead and the cut back in distance should enable him to keep it.
$10 W/P/S 3-Incubator
Aqueduct Race 6
Optional $62.5K for older fillies and mares at 7f. 4-Big Birthday is the kind of horse addressed in today’s intro. She is owned by Peter Brand (only worth $500M but married to a supermodel) and bred by Godolphin. She cost $575K as a two-year-old where people probably noticed she was ¾ to G1 winner It’s Tricky. Her problem is that she seems to run the same race every time out and that beats weaker fields and comes up short with better. Today involves better horses. How about 3-DJ’s Favorite? Owned by serial entrepreneur Len Green and bred by Stonestreet. She only cost $200K as a yearling. This one came up short at a mile the last two and the dial back in distance should help. What do we know about these connections? They are not afraid to put real money into the game. That usually means that they want big race success. 3-DJ’s Favorite appears the more likely to get it.
$10 W/P/S 3-DJ’s Favorite
Laurel Race 1
$8K for 3-year-olds at 8f. And now for something completely different. The majority of the field sold for less than $5K as yearlings. Only 6-Starr Designer comes from a big KY operation (Castleton Lyons) although several come from successful regional breeders. And with all of these being fillies, current connections feel that their value as broodmares is less than their value in this race. 6-Starr Designer is the appropriate place to start since she is owned by Frank (Goree) Smith, the force behind the Elloree Training Center in SC. Every year, he breaks hundreds of horses so he has a pretty good eye for a good horse (he is good at training young riders to be jockeys but that will appear in another intro). He bought this one for his own account so he liked her enough to bring home. She has been OK running for Frank’s brother Hammy Smith at Laurel but appears to have peaked thus the drop to a lower level. Hammy is 23% on this type of drop. And Trevor McCarthy takes the mount. That should be enough.
$10 W/P/S 6-Starr Designer
Laurel Race 7
$50K optional/first level allowance for 3-year-old fillies at 5 ½ f. So this is the other end of the spectrum from Race 1. Or you would think. But three of these sold for $1K. One of those, 4-Knock Out Kid has even won this race two back when she was in for the tag. Talk about ROI, the connections of 4-Knock Out Kid have turned their $1K into $95K in purse earnings already. But the biggest bargain in the field may be 2-Elverson who cost $50K as a two year old. Why? Her sire, Into Mischief, is red hot and this one was catalogued for one of the recent breeding stock sales before being pulled to continue racing. That says that these connections are expecting big things. Going with the hot sire here.
$10 W/P/S 2-Elverson
And now for some quickies . . .
Aqueduct Race 3
$25K n2 at 6f for older boys. Mick has stated this before -- This is Rob Atras’ world and we are just living in it. 3-Equal the Score looks to move up following his maiden breaker last out. Can’t bet against Atras until he loses on a pick.
Laurel Race 5
OC $50K for older fillies and mares at 5 ½ f. How often does Weston Hamilton thank Dale Capuano? Could it ever be enough? Capuano gave Hamilton the opportunity to ride really good horses as a bug boy leading to his recent Eclipse Award. But more importantly, he continues to ride him as a journeyman and it is working! This pair wins at 25%. 3-Bye Bye Blues is another for the pair and even better, this one has never missed the board at Laurel. Much happiness should ensue.