More on post position. Yesterday was a perfect example of the role of post position at Parx. The winners, save one, all came around the outside with many starting outside. Obviously, the bias was wide and closers. The one exception, Crazy Daisy in the 8th was the perfect example of the horse in the 1-hole breaking on top and staying there. Look for more of the same as we go through the Holiday weekend. There are big fields over the next two days so post position should play a big role.
Picks for February 17, 2019:
Colder with a chance for some precipitation. Light rain or snow should not change the track condition but any need to seal the surface will change everything.
Aqueduct Race 1
Maiden Special Weight for fillies and mares 4 and up at 6 ½ f. Starting the day off with the chalk. The weekend has been all about the daughters of Blame so why not continue here? 2-Restructure looks like a nice one that has improved with each start. The trip north for this race is odd considering her performance last out at Gulfstream but the short field could be reason enough. The first time starter from the Godolphin juggernaut, 5-Smooth Quality, may need a start since trainer McLaughlin is below his usually lofty percentages with firsters.
$10 W/P/S 2-Restructure
Aqueduct Race 7 Haynesfield Stakes
Older NY bred boys at 8f. This appears to be a battle of the big three, 1-Honor Up, 2-Syndergaard, and 4-Twisted Tom. These three are all NY bred Stakes winners but the one on the best current form cycle is 1-Honor Up. The problem is that he is stretching out from his recent efforts and he barely got home last out at 7f. Instead, looking for 4-Twisted Tom to run these down and continue Bill Mott’s hot hand in NY.
$10 W/P/S 4-Twisted Tom
Laurel Race 1
Maiden $16K for 3 year old fillies at 7f. 6-Queens Or Better has been in this situation 11 times previously so either today is the day to breakthrough. . . or not. Mick is betting the not. Why? She can’t finish 6f races so why go 7f? Next time at 5 ½ f will be her day, today isn’t. So going outside to 7-Simmard Shenanigan on the 7-day turnaround and the raise. Trainer Jose Corrales’ charge must have come out of her last race bouncing and a quick turnaround is proof enough that this one is well intentioned.
$10 W/P/S 7-Simmard Shenanigan
Laurel Race 8
$25K 3-year-old fillies at 8 ½ f. More 3-year-old filly racing at Laurel but this one has winners so the quality is much higher. The problem is the distance since most of these have never been around two turns. The one exception, 5-Ash n’ Em, won at this distance against maiden $10K company so hardly a vote of confidence. Instead, look outside to 7-You Made It, a filly that won her maiden easily but has run into tigers in her last two. This field looks considerably softer and she should bounce back on the stretch out.
$10 W/P/S 7-You Made It
And now for some quickies….
Aqueduct Race 5
NY bred 3-year-old maidens at 6f. Lots of first timers in here but 5-The Big Lebanese should get a fast track for the first time in his career after two runner up efforts on off tracks. His early lick should put him in a good position to breakthrough.
Laurel Race 9
$5K n2 at 8f for older fillies and mares. Hard to love a mare that took 16 races to break her maiden but 4-Louise is well meant to turn the maiden breaker into a two race win streak. The stretch out and the return to Ricardo Chiappe seems to be helping this 5 year old. Look for her to be moving late in the looooong Laurel stretch.