Today’s angle is all about trends. Horses are living, breathing beings and as such, they have their good days and their bad days but more importantly, they improve with training, success, weather changes, riders, trainers, and a myriad of other reasons. What the handicapper needs to keep in mind is that these trends often indicate where the results of the next race may be. The best example of a horse to watch is one that has never run a speed figure as high as others in a race but his figs have improved 5+% over three or more races. A continued improvement at that same percentage improvement puts them in contention. These kind are better options than the horse that throws in a great race occasionally. In addition, look to overlay track condition on a trend so you can throw out races that may have been on a less favored surface.
Picks for Feb. 10, 2019:
Cold, wind and dry. Good chance for cuppy tracks if the moisture comes out of the top and leaves a more consolidated base. This drying led to very uneven tracks on Saturday with Parx loosing depth as the moisture came up and Aqueduct going the other direction. Again, it will be a day to watch the track bias change during the card.
Aqueduct Race 2
$14K n3 for older fillies and mares at 9f. A war of attrition race. Only one mare in this race has ever been this far and she won. That will mean 2-Giant Ending will be very short priced in this small field. The only mare in this race that has closed at a route to win is 5-Deserted and she did it in the mud. Gotta just go with 2-Giant Ending and cash a ticket early.
$10 W/P/S 2-Giant Ending
Aqueduct Race 4
First level allowance (n2L) for NY bred older boys 5 ½ f. 4-Ready to Escape has run back to back crackers but will be very short priced here as a result. Although the cut back in distance would appear to help him, there is plenty of gas in this race and he will get pushed from the start. If he is good enough, he will lead every step. Otherwise, look for 5-Lem Me Tel Ya to pick up the pieces. He has enough speed to stalk a hot pace but has some closing kick, too.
$10 W/P/S 5-Lem Me Tel Ya
$2 Exacta box 4/5
Laurel Race 2
Maiden Special Weight for older fillies and mares at 5 ½ f. A first time starter at 2/1 on the M/L? She must be wearing UnderArmor! She is. 1-Edit and Simplify makes her debut at 4 for Sagamore Farm, the racing stable of UnderArmor’s Kevin Plank. All of his homebreds are well intentioned but the works on this one do not scream 2/1. Instead look to 3-War of the States to welcome the return home to Laurel and the cutback in distance after two tough races in NY where she showed speed and faded. She cost $185K as a yearling so it’s time to start earning some of that back.
$20 W/P/S 3-War of the States
Laurel Race 4
Another Maiden Special but for 3-year-old fillies at 6f. The fillies with starts have shown little talent or consistency so it comes down to which firster looks most promising. This is where pedigree handicapping comes into play since sires that get precocious offspring often get first out winners. The highest first out percentage belongs to 2-Lucky Ninety Nine’s sire Super Ninety Nine but he has a small sample set. Those with a larger sample set include 5-Miss Guided’s sire Speightstown at 16% and 9-Zircon Zloty’s sire Street Boss at 16%. So the choice comes down between the 5 and the 9, both out of stakes winning sprinter mares but 9-Zircon Zloty has three advantages, her works are faster, her siblings were runners, and the jockey/trainer combination wins at 23%.
$10 W/P/S 9-Zircon Zloty
And now for a quickie. . . .
Aqueduct Race 8 Biogio’s Rose Stakes
8f race for NY bred older fillies and mares. Lots of question marks here as the one turn mile has not been the best distance for most of these. Assuming the strip remains speed favoring, it would be wise to find a sprinter stretching that can hang on for the 8f. Look to the outside for two possibilities, 7-Playinwiththeboys and 8-No Hayne No Gayne. Go with the longer odds or the better turned out horse . . . your choice.