Welcome back PGA fans to another exciting week as we head to the North Atlantic Ocean where this week's event is held on the island of Bermuda. Last week's article saw us cash 2 of our 3 matchup wagers and we are going to continue to stick with that theme here on the fall schedule.
During the 2023 and 2024 seasons, our bread and butter was finishing positions. Having said that, with these fields tampered down in firepower and multiple solid options to choose from, looking at head-to-head matchups has been a nice route to take.
Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton Parish, Bermuda, is a Robert Trent Jones Sr designed course with spectacular views. From the ocean landscape views to the scenic cliffs overlooking the water, this is one of the most beautiful courses on tour.
This is also one of the shortest courses on the PGA circuit, and the way it was designed is set up to give us fireworks at the finish. The first part of this course is fairly well shielded from the wind and once players see the back 9, they are more exposed to the environment.
Playing on a course near the oceanside always brings in the dangers of the wind. This course, being very short in yardage at 6,828 yards, over the history has looked at two strongly correlated metrics for success, Driving Accuracy and Strokes-Gained Putting. How well a player fits on Bermudagrass was also considered in these wagers.
Since the start of the Procore Championship, or dating to the start of the fall schedule, Greyson Sigg has been the 3rd best golfer on tour averaging 1.6 strokes gained on the field. Dating back 5 years, on courses that are very short, less than 7,000 yards, Sigg ranks as the 4th best golfer gaining 1.35 strokes on the field.
Sigg fits small courses because he is ranked 36th on tour in driving accuracy, 22nd in approaching the green, 14th in hitting 72% greens in regulation, and ranked 18th in proximity to the hole. If Sigg can keep it in the fairway, he is surely capable of putting himself in a good position on the green to help his poor putting numbers.
I believe Sigg and Mark Hubbard are comparable off the tee, where Sigg sets himself apart is approaching the green and leaving himself in a better position to make putts. Over Sigg's last 4 events, he has T23, T11, MC, and T4. Hubbard would have lost this matchup all 4 weeks.
Matti Schmiid has been a player I have focused on all fall. He has been playing very sharp golf and looking for a major bounce back in a familiar setting. Prior to Schmid's missed cut last event, he finished T3, 5, T16, 758, T64, T26, T12, T57, making 8 straight cuts. He also finished 3rd and 61st in his last 2 events here. These matchups are always tight and can go either way, a good example is this one.
Schmid and Andrew Putnam are both very comparable. Putnam definitely has the edge on driving accuracy and fewer putts per tourney. Where I give Schmid the edge this week is in his approach game and if he can stay out of trouble off the tee, he can out-drive Putnam, possibly leaving himself better angels into the greens here. Schmiid ranks 25th in birdie average to Putnam's 101.
We lost our Harry Hall matchup wager against Sam Stevens last week, so time for Sam to make that money back for us. This will not be easy as Justin Lower is coming off one of the best finishes of his career last week T2. Lower has struggled his entire career to put two solid weeks together and that is a trend I will back.
Every start in 2024 where Lower finished inside the top 10, he either missed the next cut or finished outside the top 20. In 2023, we saw the same, but he was worse where the next event was no better than T44 following a top 10.
Stevens has been on a roll with finishes of T6, T22, T23, T37, T37 over his last 5. Comparing rankings between Stevens and Lower; strokes-gained total 47th/77th, strokes-gained off the tee 21st/139th, scoring average 18th/37th, scrambling 33rd/127th. If Stevens stays out of danger and continues to stripe his irons and wedges, he could pull this out.
Sigg over Hubbard (-134) Bet365
Schmiid over Putnam (-105) DK
Stevens over Lower (-110) Bet365
Bridgeman Top 30 (-115) Bet365
Sigg Top 30 (-115) Bet365
Bryan Top 40 (-115) Bet365