He’s baaaccckkk! And that can only be a great thing for golf, because it means many more people will be taking the time to watch. Especially with no football to get in the way.
We’re of course talking about Tiger Woods, who will make his 2019 debut at the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego. What, you thought we meant maybe Omar Uresti?
First, though, it should be pointed out that we gave you Adam Hadwin last week at the Desert Classic. At 25-1. And he almost won. Actually came from behind to take a 3-shot lead on the back nine Sunday before finishing tied for second with third-round leader Phil Mickelson, one behind Andrew Long (Andrew Long?), who got his first PGA Tour victory by making a birdie on the closing hole. It happens. Hey, we tried. Think it’s easy trying to pick a winner in a field of 150?
Anyway, now Woods is teeing it up for the first time in a real event since winning the Tour Championship last September. Which of course was his first victory anywhere in five years. He’s won eight times at Torrey Pines, including the 2008 U.S. Open on one good leg over 91 holes. His last win there was in 2013. And that’s his lone win there in the last decade. But you get the point.
Eight of the top 13 players in the world rankings will be joining him. Tiger is not the favorite. Nor should he be. For the second straight week, that honor goes to one of them, No. 7 Jon Rahm. Woods, by the way, is 13th. At this time last year he was like 600 -and-something. Rahm won this tournament two years ago, and finished sixth last week. He’s 10-1.
Defending champion Jason Day, who also won in 2015, is 14-1. As is Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose, who was 34th last week in his ’19 debut. Next is Tiger, at 16-1. In a perfect world I would tell you that anytime you can get him at those numbers you should take a shot, especially at a venue like this. And maybe that’s the play. I’m just not sure he’s ready to win again right out of the gate. But it is Tiger. And I’ve always been a big Tiger guy.
This week there’s also some interesting prop bets that you might not get in non-majors. Like Tiger being +200 to make the top 10, and -265 not to. Or +400/-650 to make or not make the top five. The last time he finished in the top 10 here and didn’t win was 2004. Research. Just to make the cut you have to lay -170, or get +140 if you went the other way.
Also, you can go with his best score on the easier north course to be lower than 70.5 at -120, or higher at -110. On the south course it’s 71.5, and it’s again -110 or -120. The odds that he will hold the lead at the end of any of the first three rounds is +500 for yes and -900 for no. So you can have something to root for almost every step of the way.
Just for the heck of it, I might put a little something on him at these odds just in case he does. +200 to be in the top 10 seems like a risk worth taking. Maybe even that one about him leading after any of the first three rounds. But I’d tread carefully. Yes, you’re trying to cash. But it’s also about having some fun.
I’m always looking for some longer odds, because what else is there? Sometimes it works, and sometimes the chalk does what the chalk’s supposed to do yet often doesn’t.
So . . . Tony Finau is 18-1. He might be worth a look. He won a World Junior title here, and has a fourth and sixth place finish in this tourney. Just saying. And, like Hadwin last week, I have him in a yearlong pool where you have to pick all the winners in December and can’t pick anyone more than once. Of course sometimes that can turn out to be the kiss of Mush. I’ll give you three others to consider: Marc Leischman, also at 18-1, and Gary Woodland and Charles Howell III at 25-1. He’s been in the top 10 three of the last four times he’s played here.
Speaking of which, the two blokes that Rahm beat last year in a six-hole playoff, Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer, are 40-1 and 80-1, respectively.
It’s worth noting that Brandt Snedeker, who won in 2016 and ’12, is 40-1. So that could be a live longshot. And Jordan Spieth is 30-1. But he’s not Jordan Spieth right now. Who knows when that will change.
Xander Schauffele, who’s won two of his last four starts, including the Tournament of Champions in Maui, is another at 18-1.
Or you can just take the field and root for another Andrew Long.
So you think if Tiger actually wins this one that it’ll be a seismic deal?
In 2005 at the British Open myself and everyone else could have got Tiger at 3-1. At St. Andrews, where he’d won by a bunch five years earlier. Then he went out and opened with a 66, which dropped him to 1-3. Ah, what could have been. He only won by five. That would have brought me at least a few Tennents lagers at the Dunvegan pub.
Sometimes it’s about the obvious.
Story of my existence, unfortunately. Remember, fairways and greens. And the occasional one-putt.